Bundesliga 2026-27 · after matchday 9
The Bundesliga, adjusted for luck.
Every match replayed 4,000 times from what both teams’ goals say: was the result lucky or expected, and the table in the points the goals earn, beside the points teams have.
Results in our sources (openfootball and OpenLigaDB) through Nov 8, 2026. Volunteers keep both up to date, so the latest matchdays can take a while to arrive.
Luckiest so far: Dortmund, +3.5 points against their goals. Unluckiest: Augsburg, −3.7.
Matchday 9: the results the goals liked least
- Stuttgart 1–0 Werder
Stuttgart beat Werder 1–0, and the goals lean Stuttgart’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Werder, 2 end level.
- Köln 1–2 Leverkusen
Leverkusen beat Köln 2–1, and the goals lean Leverkusen’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Köln, 2 end level.
- Hoffenheim 2–1 Schalke
Hoffenheim beat Schalke 2–1, and the goals lean Hoffenheim’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Schalke, 3 end level.
- HSV 3–1 Gladbach
HSV beat Gladbach 3–1, and the goals lean HSV’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Gladbach, 2 end level.
Matchday 10: our predictions
- Bayern v Köln
Fri, Nov 20 · 20:30 CET
- Leverkusen v Paderborn
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:30 CET
- Elversberg v Freiburg
Sat, Nov 21 · 16:00 CET
- Gladbach v Dortmund
Sat, Nov 21 · 16:00 CET
- Frankfurt v Hoffenheim
Sat, Nov 21 · 16:00 CET
- Union Berlin v Leipzig
Sat, Nov 21 · 16:00 CET
The table, in the points the goals earn
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Goal pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern | 9 | +20 | 21 | 18.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 |  Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 | 17.5 | +3.5 |
| 3▲1 |  Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 | 17.2 | +0.8 |
| 4▼1 |  Freiburg | 9 | +10 | 19 | 16.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 |  Leverkusen | 9 | +3 | 16 | 13.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 |  Werder | 9 | +2 | 15 | 13.5 | +1.5 |
| 7▲1 |  Stuttgart | 9 | 0 | 12 | 13.1 | −1.1 |
| 8▲6 |  Augsburg | 9 | 0 | 9 | 12.7 | −3.7 |
| 9▼2 |  Elversberg | 9 | −1 | 13 | 12.4 | +0.6 |
| 10▼1 |  Hoffenheim | 9 | −1 | 12 | 12.1 | −0.1 |
| 11▼1 |  Frankfurt | 9 | −5 | 12 | 11.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 |  Mainz | 9 | −1 | 10 | 11.2 | −1.2 |
| 13 |  Paderborn | 9 | −3 | 10 | 10.8 | −0.8 |
| 14▲1 |  Köln | 9 | −4 | 9 | 10.3 | −1.3 |
| 15▼4 |  HSV | 9 | −10 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 16▲1 |  Schalke | 9 | −6 | 6 | 8.3 | −2.3 |
| 17▼1 |  Union Berlin | 9 | −14 | 7 | 8.3 | −1.3 |
| 18 |  Gladbach | 9 | −13 | 4 | 7.7 | −3.7 |
Every matchday, 2026-27
- Matchday 9 Nov 6, 2026 · 9 matches · every winner led the replays
- Matchday 8 Oct 30, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: Leverkusen 2–4 Stuttgart, 36% of replays
- Matchday 7 Oct 23, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: Stuttgart 2–3 Gladbach, 19% of replays
- Matchday 6 Oct 16, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: Schalke 0–1 Mainz, 36% of replays
- Matchday 5 Oct 9, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: Hoffenheim 2–3 HSV, 33% of replays
- Matchday 4 Sep 18, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: Leverkusen 2–0 Leipzig, 48% of replays
- Matchday 3 Sep 11, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke, 42% of replays
- Matchday 2 Sep 4, 2026 · 9 matches · biggest steal: HSV 0–5 Mainz, 44% of replays
- Matchday 1 Aug 28, 2026 · 9 matches · every winner led the replays
Other seasons: 2025-26