luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

2026-27 season · through matchday 9

Bundesliga power rankings, matchday 10

All 18 clubs, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the goals a match it would beat an average club by on neutral ground. Bayern are No. 1 at +1.61 goals, Dortmund No. 2 (+0.84), Leipzig No. 3 (+0.61).

Biggest climb since the matchday before: HSV, up 4 to No. 13. Biggest drop: Augsburg, down 2 to No. 11. The same ratings make our predictions.

#MoveClub W–D–LPtsRating This seasonLast season Luck
1 – Bayern 6–3–021 +1.61 +0.51+1.10 +2.3
2 – Dortmund 6–3–021 +0.84 +0.31+0.54 +3.5
3 – Leipzig 6–0–318 +0.61 +0.34+0.27 +0.8
4 – Leverkusen 5–1–316 +0.49 +0.09+0.39 +2.4
5 – Stuttgart 4–0–512 +0.41 +0.06+0.35 −1.1
6 – Freiburg 6–1–219 +0.18 +0.26−0.09 +2.3
7 – Hoffenheim 4–0–512 +0.02 −0.08+0.10 −0.1
8 – Frankfurt 3–3–312 −0.01 −0.06+0.05 +0.4
9 ▲1 Werder 4–3–215 −0.16 +0.11−0.27 +1.5
10 ▲1 Mainz 3–1–510 −0.19 −0.14−0.05 −1.2
11 ▼2 Augsburg 2–3–49 −0.19 0.00−0.20 −3.7
12 – Elversberg 4–1–413 −0.33 +0.03−0.36 +0.6
13 ▲4 HSV 4–0–512 −0.50 −0.21−0.29 +2.4
14 ▼1 Köln 2–3–49 −0.53 −0.20−0.33 −1.3
15 ▲1 Paderborn 2–4–310 −0.53 −0.14−0.40 −0.8
16 ▼2 Union Berlin 1–4–47 −0.56 −0.33−0.23 −1.3
17 ▼2 Gladbach 1–1–74 −0.58 −0.39−0.19 −3.7
18 – Schalke 1–3–56 −0.58 −0.19−0.40 −2.3

Rating: goals a match better than an average club on neutral ground. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s goal differences, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: points above what the club’s goals were worth, every match replayed 4,000 times. Line-ups, injuries and transfers are left out.

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the Bundesliga power rankings after matchday 9?

Bayern Munich, rated +1.61 goals a match better than an average club on neutral ground. Next: Dortmund (+0.84) and Leipzig (+0.61).

How are these power rankings made?

From this season’s goal differences and how many goals each club’s matches have, each rated against the opponents played, and last season’s rating, which fades as matches are played. The same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a club with more points ranked lower?

Because points carry luck: one-goal wins and late goals that don’t repeat, and the odd own goal or deflection. A club is rated on its goals, not its results.

Predictions · The table adjusted for luck · How the replays work