luckadjusted
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · 2026-27

Bundesliga 2025-26 · final

The Bundesliga table, adjusted for luck

Bayern have +9.9 points more than their goals earn, the luckiest side; Köln −8.2, the unluckiest.

Goal points: each match replayed 4,000 times from what both sides’ goals over the season say, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. This is a narrower kind of luck than the shot-based tables of other seasons on this site: with no shots we can’t tell whether a side made its goals, only whether its goals turned into points, as when it wins its one-goal games. After the first ten matchdays the gap is mostly noise, and it doesn’t predict the rest of a season better than the real table does (the test).

In the points the goals earn

Ordered by goal points. The arrows show how far each club sits from its place in the real table.

#TeamPlW–D–LGD Pts Goal pts Luck, pts
1 Bayern 34 28–5–1 +86 89 79.1 +9.9
2 Dortmund 34 22–7–5 +36 73 67.7 +5.3
3▲1 Stuttgart 34 18–8–8 +22 62 59.6 +2.4
4▲2 Leverkusen 34 17–8–9 +21 59 57.5 +1.5
5 Hoffenheim 34 18–7–9 +13 61 56.9 +4.1
6▼3 Leipzig 34 20–5–9 +19 65 56.4 +8.6
7▲1 Frankfurt 34 11–11–12 −4 44 47.2 −3.2
8▼1 Freiburg 34 13–8–13 −6 47 44.7 +2.3
9▲1 Mainz 34 10–10–14 −9 40 43.7 −3.7
10▼1 Augsburg 34 12–7–15 −16 43 41.1 +1.9
11▲3 Köln 34 7–11–16 −14 32 40.2 −8.2
12 Gladbach 34 9–11–14 −11 38 40.0 −2.0
13 HSV 34 9–11–14 −14 38 39.9 −1.9
14▼3 Union Berlin 34 10–9–15 −14 39 39.1 −0.1
15▲1 Wolfsburg 34 7–8–19 −24 29 36.9 −7.9
16▼1 Werder 34 8–8–18 −23 32 34.1 −2.1
17 Heidenheim 34 6–8–20 −31 26 32.5 −6.5
18 St. Pauli 34 6–8–20 −31 26 30.5 −4.5

The real table

#TeamPlW–D–LGD Pts Goal pts Luck, pts
1 Bayern 34 28–5–1 +86 89 79.1 +9.9
2 Dortmund 34 22–7–5 +36 73 67.7 +5.3
3 Leipzig 34 20–5–9 +19 65 56.4 +8.6
4 Stuttgart 34 18–8–8 +22 62 59.6 +2.4
5 Hoffenheim 34 18–7–9 +13 61 56.9 +4.1
6 Leverkusen 34 17–8–9 +21 59 57.5 +1.5
7 Freiburg 34 13–8–13 −6 47 44.7 +2.3
8 Frankfurt 34 11–11–12 −4 44 47.2 −3.2
9 Augsburg 34 12–7–15 −16 43 41.1 +1.9
10 Mainz 34 10–10–14 −9 40 43.7 −3.7
11 Union Berlin 34 10–9–15 −14 39 39.1 −0.1
12 Gladbach 34 9–11–14 −11 38 40.0 −2.0
13 HSV 34 9–11–14 −14 38 39.9 −1.9
14 Köln 34 7–11–16 −14 32 40.2 −8.2
15 Werder 34 8–8–18 −23 32 34.1 −2.1
16 Wolfsburg 34 7–8–19 −24 29 36.9 −7.9
17 Heidenheim 34 6–8–20 −31 26 32.5 −6.5
18 St. Pauli 34 6–8–20 −31 26 30.5 −4.5

Luck, pts: points minus goal points. Seasons: 2025-26 · 2026-27