luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · final

NHL standings 2025-26, adjusted for luck

The 2025-26 table, and the same games with every shot redrawn at its chance and overtime and the shootout replayed. Without that luck, 3 playoff places would go to a different team.

Points: 2 for a win, 1 for a loss in overtime or the shootout. Coin-flip points: each game counted at the points the team averages when only the luck is replayed; it is the number that best predicts how a team does the rest of the season. Replay points: the replay with the same day’s form. Teams sorted by coin-flip points; the actual place is beside them. Regular season. Luck rankings

Atlantic Eastern

#TeamGPRecordPtsCoin-flip ptsReplay ptsLuckActual place
1 Lightning 82 50–26–6 106 105.1 96.7 +0.9 2
2 Senators 82 44–27–11 99 99.7 100.2 −0.7 5
3 Sabres 82 50–23–9 109 95.4 92.2 +13.6 1
4 Canadiensout without luck 82 48–24–10 106 87.8 87.9 +18.2 3
5 Panthers 82 40–38–4 84 85.3 92.1 −1.3 7
6 Red Wings 82 41–31–10 92 84.8 88.7 +7.2 6
7 Bruinsout without luck 82 45–27–10 100 81.1 84 +18.9 4
8 Maple Leafs 82 32–36–14 78 71.4 80.4 +6.6 8

Metropolitan Eastern

#TeamGPRecordPtsCoin-flip ptsReplay ptsLuckActual place
1 Hurricanes 82 53–22–7 113 109 102.7 +4.0 1
2 Penguins 82 41–25–16 98 93.2 94.4 +4.8 2
3 Capitalsin without luck 82 43–30–9 95 92.2 90 +2.8 4
4 Blue Jacketsin without luck 82 40–30–12 92 91.1 92.9 +0.9 5
5 Flyers 82 43–27–12 98 89.9 90.8 +8.1 3
6 Devils 82 42–37–3 87 85.7 89.7 +1.3 7
7 Rangers 82 34–39–9 77 79 87 −2.0 8
8 Islanders 82 43–34–5 91 78.2 85.8 +12.8 6

Central Western

#TeamGPRecordPtsCoin-flip ptsReplay ptsLuckActual place
1 Avalanche 82 55–16–11 121 117 105.7 +4.0 1
2 Stars 82 50–20–12 112 102.1 95.2 +9.9 2
3 Mammoth 82 43–33–6 92 93.7 93.2 −1.7 4
4 Wild 82 46–24–12 104 93.2 92.4 +10.8 3
5 Jetsin without luck 82 35–35–12 82 86.7 90.4 −4.7 7
6 Blues 82 37–33–12 86 83.8 89.5 +2.2 5
7 Predators 82 38–34–10 86 78.1 85 +7.9 6
8 Blackhawks 82 29–39–14 72 69.3 78.1 +2.7 8

Pacific Western

#TeamGPRecordPtsCoin-flip ptsReplay ptsLuckActual place
1 Golden Knights 82 39–26–17 95 102.5 101.6 −7.5 1
2 Kings 82 35–27–20 90 93.3 94 −3.3 4
3 Oilers 82 41–30–11 93 91.6 92.1 +1.4 2
4 Ducksout without luck 82 43–33–6 92 83.5 89.4 +8.5 3
5 Kraken 82 34–37–11 79 73.8 82.8 +5.2 6
6 Sharks 82 39–35–8 86 72.8 83.2 +13.2 5
7 Flames 82 34–39–9 77 72.7 81.9 +4.3 7
8 Canucks 82 25–49–8 58 61 77.5 −3.0 8

Shaded: in the playoffs on coin-flip points (the top three of each division and the two best other teams of each conference). Luck: points minus coin-flip points. Ties are broken the NHL’s way: fewer games played, regulation wins, regulation and overtime wins, wins, goal differential.

The playoff picture without luck

Eastern Conference. Capitals and Blue Jackets would be in, Canadiens and Bruins out.

Western Conference. Jets would be in, Ducks out.

Questions

What are luck-adjusted NHL standings?

The 2025-26 standings with the luck taken out of every game: each shot’s result redrawn at its chance (finishing and goaltending beyond each player’s own record), overtime and the shootout replayed as the near coin flips they are, and everything else as played. Each game counts for the points the team gets on average when it is replayed that way. A team riding a hot goalie or a run of shootout wins drops; one that keeps losing games it outshot its opponent in climbs.

Is this the same as PDO?

Close, but per shot rather than per season: PDO adds shooting and save percentages and expects them to return to 100. Here each shot is valued at its own chance, the shooter’s and goalie’s records count as skill, and only part of the rest as luck. Tested on every season since 2018-19, it predicts the rest of a season better than PDO regression does (see the methodology).

Who would make the 2025-26 playoffs without luck?

Eastern Conference: Capitals and Blue Jackets in place of Canadiens and Bruins; Western Conference: Jets in place of Ducks.