Were the Sabres lucky in 2025-26?

Yes: +13.6 points against what their play was worth, the 3rd-luckiest of 32.

Where did the Sabres’ luck come from?

Goaltending +17.7 goals, Shooting +12.3 goals, Shootout +4.0 goals, Empty-net goals −1.1 goals, Overtime −4.9 goals.

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres went 50–23–9 (109 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 95.4 points. Luck added 13.6: the 3rd-luckiest of 32. PDO 1.021; 50.0% of the expected goals in their games.

Atlantic Division, 2025-26

#	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Without luck
1	Sabres	82	50–23–9	109	95.4	3rd
2	Lightning	82	50–26–6	106	105.1	1st
3	Canadiens	82	48–24–10	106	87.8	4th
4	Bruins	82	45–27–10	100	81.1	7th
5	Senators	82	44–27–11	99	99.7	2nd
6	Red Wings	82	41–31–10	92	84.8	6th
7	Panthers	82	40–38–4	84	85.3	5th
8	Maple Leafs	82	32–36–14	78	71.4	8th

Every division, adjusted for luck

Where the luck came from, 2025-26

Goaltending +17.7

Shooting +12.3

Shootout +4.0

Empty-net goals −1.1

Overtime −4.9

Goals of margin luck added (right) or cost (left) over the season, each kind at its fitted luck share; overtime and shootout wins count two.

Season by season

Season	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Luck
2026-27	0–1–0	0	0.7	−0.7
2025-26	50–23–9	109	95.4	+13.6

Luckiest wins

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Dec 23, 2025	@ Senators	W 3–2	29%	+71
Feb 2, 2026	@ Panthers	W 5–3	31%	+69
Jan 6, 2026	vs Canucks	W 5–3	31%	+69
Dec 21, 2025	@ Devils	W 3–1	35%	+66
Dec 11, 2025	@ Canucks	W 3–2	36%	+64

Unluckiest losses

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Oct 30, 2025	@ Bruins	L 3–4	80%	−80
Nov 28, 2025	vs Devils	L 0–5	70%	−70
Nov 6, 2025	vs Blues	L 0–3	68%	−68
Jan 31, 2026	vs Canadiens	L 2–4	68%	−68
Oct 20, 2025	@ Canadiens	L 2–4	65%	−65

Division rivals

Bruins · Red Wings · Panthers · Canadiens · Senators · Lightning · Maple Leafs

Every NHL team · 2025-26 luck rankings · How the luck is measured