2025-26 season · final
Buffalo Sabres, 2025-26: game by game
The Sabres went 50–23–9 (109 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 95.4 points. Luck added 13.6: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 15–12; in overtime 3–8, in the shootout 5–1.
Playoffs: 7–6.
Every game
How often the Sabres win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 0–4 | 50% | −50 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 1–3 | 33% | −33 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs Avalanche | L 1–3 | 37% | −37 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Senators | W 8–4 | 39% | +61 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Panthers | W 3–0 | 38% | +62 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | @ Canadiens | L 2–4 | 65% | −65 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Red Wings | W 4–2 | 70% | +30 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 5–3 | 51% | +49 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 3–4 | 52% | −52 | OT |
| Oct 28, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | L 3–4 | 44% | −44 | OT |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 3–4 | 80% | −80 | OT |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Capitals | W 4–3 | 60% | +40 | SO |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Mammoth | L 1–2 | 24% | −24 | OT |
| Nov 6, 2025 | vs Blues | L 0–3 | 68% | −68 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–6 | 41% | −41 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Mammoth | L 2–5 | 39% | −39 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 3–6 | 39% | −39 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Red Wings | W 5–4 | 46% | +54 | OT |
| Nov 17, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 5–1 | 71% | +29 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Flames | L 2–6 | 44% | −44 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | W 9–3 | 68% | +32 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Hurricanes | W 4–1 | 51% | +49 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Penguins | L 2–4 | 61% | −61 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Devils | L 0–5 | 70% | −70 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Wild | W 3–2 | 54% | +46 | SO |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs Jets | W 5–1 | 56% | +44 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Flyers | L 2–5 | 38% | −38 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ Jets | L 1–4 | 62% | −62 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ Flames | L 4–7 | 53% | −53 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | @ Oilers | W 4–3 | 47% | +53 | OT |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 3–2 | 36% | +64 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 3–1 | 46% | +54 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Flyers | W 5–3 | 52% | +48 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Islanders | W 3–2 | 67% | +33 | SO |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Devils | W 3–1 | 35% | +66 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Senators | W 3–2 | 29% | +71 | OT |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 4–1 | 58% | +42 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ Blues | W 4–2 | 68% | +32 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | @ Stars | W 4–1 | 48% | +52 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | L 1–5 | 63% | −63 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 5–3 | 31% | +69 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 5–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 5–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Panthers | L 3–4 | 45% | −45 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | vs Flyers | W 5–2 | 58% | +42 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 5–3 | 44% | +56 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Wild | L 4–5 | 33% | −33 | OT |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 1–2 | 42% | −42 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @ Predators | W 5–3 | 41% | +59 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 4–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Islanders | W 5–0 | 48% | +52 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 7–4 | 55% | +45 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Kings | W 4–1 | 50% | +50 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 2–4 | 68% | −68 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @ Panthers | W 5–3 | 31% | +69 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 3–4 | 42% | −42 | OT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 2–5 | 41% | −41 | |
| Feb 25, 2026 | @ Devils | W 2–1 | 48% | +52 | |
| Feb 27, 2026 | @ Panthers | W 3–2 | 44% | +56 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Lightning | W 6–2 | 62% | +38 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 3–2 | 46% | +54 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 5–1 | 60% | +40 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vs Predators | W 3–2 | 50% | +50 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 8–7 | 48% | +52 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 6–3 | 60% | +40 | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | vs Capitals | L 1–2 | 57% | −57 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 3–2 | 76% | +24 | SO |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @ Golden Knights | W 2–0 | 38% | +62 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Sharks | W 5–0 | 50% | +50 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @ Kings | W 4–1 | 51% | +49 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 5–6 | 45% | −45 | OT |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vs Bruins | L 3–4 | 58% | −58 | OT |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Red Wings | L 2–5 | 64% | −64 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Kraken | W 3–2 | 49% | +51 | SO |
| Mar 31, 2026 | vs Islanders | W 4–3 | 72% | +28 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Senators | L 1–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 2–6 | 55% | −55 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 4–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Apr 8, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 5–3 | 67% | +33 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | W 5–0 | 43% | +57 | |
| Apr 13, 2026 | @ Blackhawks | W 5–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vs Stars | L 3–4 | 48% | −48 | SO |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 4–3 | 61% | +39 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Bruins | L 2–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Apr 23, 2026 | @ Bruins | W 3–1 | 54% | +46 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @ Bruins | W 6–1 | 71% | +29 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | vs Bruins | L 1–2 | 47% | −47 | OT |
| May 1, 2026 | @ Bruins | W 4–1 | 65% | +35 | |
| May 6, 2026 | vs Canadiens | W 4–2 | 63% | +37 | |
| May 8, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 1–5 | 31% | −31 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @ Canadiens | L 2–6 | 36% | −36 | |
| May 12, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 3–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| May 14, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 3–6 | 42% | −42 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @ Canadiens | W 8–3 | 81% | +19 | |
| May 18, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 2–3 | 64% | −64 | OT |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Sabres’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +17.7 |
| Shooting | +12.3 |
| Shootout | +4.0 |
| Empty-net goals | −1.1 |
| Overtime | −4.9 |