luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Second round 2025-26 · May 6, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Sabres, Game 1, second round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Canadiens 4–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 16:28 left): Jordan Greenway scored on a wrist shot from 40 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final

Montreal Canadiens 2
Buffalo Sabres 4

May 6, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Luck index +37 Sabres lucky · −37 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 4, Sabres win 6.

  1. 1 MTL 3 BUF 0
  2. 2 MTL 3 BUF 1
  3. 3 MTL 3 BUF 2
  4. 4 MTL 4 BUF 3
  5. 5 MTL 1 BUF 2
  6. 6 MTL 4 BUF 5
  7. 7 MTL 2 BUF 4
  8. 8 MTL 1 BUF 4
  9. 9 MTL 1 BUF 4
  10. 10 MTL 1 BUF 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.6 replays ended

Canadiens win 37% of them, Sabres 63%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+9.7%
Canadiens by 27.5%
Canadiens by 119.7%
Sabres by 121.7%
Sabres by 212.0%
Sabres by 3+29.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Sabres: the final margin was Sabres by 2, without the luck Sabres by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens4022.68−0.68
Sabres3142.90+1.10

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:30 Tripping on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 8:25 Tripping on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 2:02 Interference on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P2 12:47 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BUF
P2 10:49 High sticking on the Sabres (Beck Malenstyn): 2 minutes on the power play +1% MTL

When it happened

Sabres’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sabres were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:30 Tripping on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
2 P1 17:39 Zach Benson’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% MTL –
3 P1 15:29 Josh Doan scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance +12% BUF –
4 P1 6:34 Ryan McLeod scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance +12% BUF –
5 P1 0:44 Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 4 feetShooting · 45% chance +8% MTL –
6 P2 16:28 Jordan Greenway scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% BUF –
7 P2 10:59 Bowen Byram scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 10% chance +7% BUF –
8 P2 3:29 Kirby Dach scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance +6% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 29% · Sabres 71%

Final margin
Sabres by 2
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Sabres
Luck-adjusted margin
Sabres by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 37% · Sabres 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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