Canadiens lucky 3 
Sabres unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 36% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · May 3, 2026 – May 18, 2026
Second round 2025-26: who deserved to win
1 of 22 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canadiens beat the Sabres 3–2 (OT) in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Canadiens lucky 3 Sabres unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 36% of replays 
Wild 2 
Avalanche 5 Coin flip · Avalanche win 46% of replays Sabres 3 Canadiens 2 Coin flip · Sabres win 48% of replays 
Ducks 1 
Golden Knights 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 50% of replays 
Hurricanes 3 
Flyers 2 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 52% of replays Avalanche 1 Wild 5 Coin flip · Wild win 55% of replays Ducks 3 Golden Knights 1 Coin flip · Ducks win 57% of replays Golden Knights 3 Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 58% of replays Canadiens 6 Sabres 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 58% of replays Golden Knights 5 Ducks 1 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 59% of replays Ducks 2 Golden Knights 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 59% of replays Wild 6 Avalanche 9 Replays agree · Avalanche win 61% of replays Canadiens 2 Sabres 4 Replays agree · Sabres win 63% of replays Sabres 2 Canadiens 6 Replays agree · Canadiens win 64% of replays Avalanche 5 Wild 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 66% of replays Flyers 2 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 66% of replays Wild 3 Avalanche 4 Replays agree · Avalanche win 66% of replays Flyers 0 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 67% of replays Canadiens 5 Sabres 1 Replays agree · Canadiens win 69% of replays Golden Knights 6 Ducks 2 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 74% of replays Hurricanes 4 Flyers 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 75% of replays Sabres 8 Canadiens 3 Replays agree · Sabres win 81% of replays Second round luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canadiens | W 3–2 OT @ Sabres May 18, 2026 | 36% | +64 |
| 2 | Avalanche | W 5–2 vs Wild May 6, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 3 | Sabres | W 3–2 @ Canadiens May 12, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 4 | Golden Knights | W 3–1 vs Ducks May 5, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 5 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 OT @ Flyers May 9, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 6 | Wild | W 5–1 vs Avalanche May 10, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 7 | Ducks | W 3–1 @ Golden Knights May 7, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 8 | Ducks | W 4–3 vs Golden Knights May 11, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 9 | Canadiens | W 6–3 @ Sabres May 14, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 10 | Golden Knights | W 5–1 @ Ducks May 15, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 11 | Golden Knights | W 3–2 OT vs Ducks May 13, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 12 | Avalanche | W 9–6 vs Wild May 4, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 13 | Sabres | W 4–2 vs Canadiens May 6, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 14 | Canadiens | W 6–2 vs Sabres May 10, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 15 | Avalanche | W 5–2 @ Wild May 12, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 16 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 OT vs Flyers May 4, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 17 | Avalanche | W 4–3 OT vs Wild May 14, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 18 | Hurricanes | W 3–0 vs Flyers May 3, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 19 | Canadiens | W 5–1 @ Sabres May 8, 2026 | 69% | +31 |
| 20 | Golden Knights | W 6–2 @ Ducks May 9, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 21 | Hurricanes | W 4–1 @ Flyers May 8, 2026 | 75% | +25 |
| 22 | Sabres | W 8–3 @ Canadiens May 17, 2026 | 81% | +19 |
| 23 | Canadiens | L 3–8 vs Sabres May 17, 2026 | 19% | −19 |
| 24 | Flyers | L 1–4 vs Hurricanes May 8, 2026 | 25% | −25 |
| 25 | Ducks | L 2–6 vs Golden Knights May 9, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 26 | Sabres | L 1–5 vs Canadiens May 8, 2026 | 31% | −31 |
| 27 | Flyers | L 0–3 @ Hurricanes May 3, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 28 | Wild | L 3–4 OT @ Avalanche May 14, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 29 | Flyers | L 2–3 OT @ Hurricanes May 4, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 30 | Wild | L 2–5 vs Avalanche May 12, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 31 | Sabres | L 2–6 @ Canadiens May 10, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 32 | Canadiens | L 2–4 @ Sabres May 6, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 33 | Wild | L 6–9 @ Avalanche May 4, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 34 | Ducks | L 2–3 OT @ Golden Knights May 13, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 35 | Ducks | L 1–5 vs Golden Knights May 15, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 36 | Sabres | L 3–6 vs Canadiens May 14, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 37 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 @ Ducks May 11, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 38 | Golden Knights | L 1–3 vs Ducks May 7, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 39 | Avalanche | L 1–5 @ Wild May 10, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 40 | Flyers | L 2–3 OT vs Hurricanes May 9, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 41 | Ducks | L 1–3 @ Golden Knights May 5, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 42 | Canadiens | L 2–3 vs Sabres May 12, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 43 | Wild | L 2–5 @ Avalanche May 6, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 44 | Sabres | L 2–3 OT vs Canadiens May 18, 2026 | 64% | −64 |