luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Second round 2025-26 · May 4, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Hurricanes, Game 2, second round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Flyers 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Flyers had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (OT): the Hurricanes won in overtime, worth 48 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final (OT)

Philadelphia Flyers 2
Carolina Hurricanes 3

May 4, 2026 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +34 Hurricanes lucky · −34 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 3, Hurricanes win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 3 CAR 0
  2. 2 PHI 3 CAR 1
  3. 3 PHI 5 CAR 4
  4. 4 PHI 0 CAR 1
  5. 5 PHI 4 CAR 5
  6. 6 PHI 3 CAR 4
  7. 7 PHI 1 CAR 3
  8. 8 PHI 2 CAR 5
  9. 9 PHI 1 CAR 4
  10. 10 PHI 1 CAR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Flyers win 34% of them, Hurricanes 66%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+9.4%
Flyers by 27.1%
Flyers by 117.2%
Hurricanes by 120.9%
Hurricanes by 211.8%
Hurricanes by 3+33.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers2722.000.00
Hurricanes4923.28−1.28

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:35 Delaying game puck over glass on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 11:35 Holding on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CAR
P1 6:39 Holding on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 3:44 Holding the stick on the Flyers (Carl Grundstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 0:55 Too many men on the ice on the Flyers (PHI): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 17:14 Delaying game puck over glass on the Hurricanes (Mark Jankowski): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 15:30 Tripping on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 10:03 Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 5:50 High sticking on the Flyers (Denver Barkey): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P2 2:42 High sticking on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 18:25 High sticking on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 12:20 Roughing on the Flyers (Emil Andrae): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
OT 13:31 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +12% PHI

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:58 Jamie Drysdale scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% PHI –
2 P1 15:19 Sean Couturier scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance +12% PHI –
3 P1 9:39 Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a slap shot from 35 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% CAR –
4 P3 12:20 Roughing on the Flyers (Emil Andrae): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CAR –
5 P3 11:26 Logan Stankoven’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +7% PHI –
6 P3 8:39 Seth Jarvis scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance +31% CAR –
7 OT The Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +48% CAR –
8 OT 13:31 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 28% · Hurricanes 72%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 34% · Hurricanes 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All second round 2025-26 games · Flyers · Hurricanes

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