Second round 2025-26 · May 9, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Flyers, Game 4, second round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Flyers 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Hurricanes win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 15:47 left): Logan Stankoven scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Hurricanes. The biggest single swing (OT): the Hurricanes won in overtime.
Final (OT)
 Carolina Hurricanes | 3 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Hurricanes lucky · −48 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 5, Flyers win 5.
- 1 CAR 5 PHI 1
- 2 CAR 4 PHI 1
- 3 CAR 2 PHI 0
- 4 CAR 2 PHI 1
- 5 CAR 6 PHI 5
- 6 CAR 1 PHI 2
- 7 CAR 4 PHI 5
- 8 CAR 1 PHI 3
- 9 CAR 0 PHI 3
- 10 CAR 1 PHI 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Hurricanes win 52% of them, Flyers 48%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 19.0% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 10.8% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 22.3% |
| Flyers by 1 | 21.5% |
| Flyers by 2 | 9.4% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 17.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 51 | 2 | 2.85 | −0.85 |
 Flyers | 29 | 2 | 2.50 | −0.50 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:28 | Hooking on the Flyers (Porter Martone): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 5:34 | Interference on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 15:44 | Hooking on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 12:38 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jordan Staal): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 11:18 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 9:40 | Interference on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:10 | Tyson Foerster scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 15% chance | +14% PHI | – |
| 2 | P2 7:25 | Jackson Blake scored on a wrist shot from 46 feetShooting · 1% chance | +22% CAR | – |
| 3 | P3 15:47 | The game turned hereLogan Stankoven scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance | +25% CAR | – |
| 4 | P3 14:08 | Alex Bump scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance | +24% PHI | – |
| 5 | P3 9:19 | Porter Martone’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +5% CAR | – |
| 6 | P3 6:58 | Garnet Hathaway missed the net with a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 25% chance | +9% CAR | – |
| 7 | P3 5:40 | Mark Jankowski missed the net with a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 12% chance | +5% PHI | – |
| 8 | OT | The Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +45% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 56% · Flyers 44%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for the Hurricanes
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 52% · Flyers 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from second round, 2025-26
- Flyers at Hurricanes May 4, 2026 · CAR 3–2 OT · replay 66% for the winner
- Flyers at Hurricanes May 3, 2026 · CAR 3–0 · replay 67% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Flyers May 8, 2026 · CAR 4–1 · replay 75% for the winner
- Canadiens at Sabres May 18, 2026 · MTL 3–2 OT · replay 36% for the winner
- Wild at Avalanche May 6, 2026 · COL 5–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Sabres at Canadiens May 12, 2026 · BUF 3–2 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ducks at Golden Knights May 5, 2026 · VGK 3–1 · replay 50% for the winner
- Avalanche at Wild May 10, 2026 · MIN 5–1 · replay 55% for the winner
- Ducks at Golden Knights May 7, 2026 · ANA 3–1 · replay 57% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Ducks May 11, 2026 · ANA 4–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Canadiens at Sabres May 14, 2026 · MTL 6–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Ducks May 15, 2026 · VGK 5–1 · replay 59% for the winner