2026-27 · Week 1 · October 2–4
NHL predictions, week 1 Every NHL game of the week, forecast from each team’s goal margins and expected-goal margins this season, with the luck of its results taken out, and from where it stood last season. No betting information goes in. Tested on every game from 2021-22 to 2025-26, each season forecast from what was known before each game, it picked 58.8% of winners.
Updated Oct 3, 1:05 am ET. Each forecast is frozen at puck drop and scored when the game is played. How it has done
Weeks ahead 1 2 3 4 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Hockey is decided by few goals, and a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves the result more than in any other big league. These forecasts carry ±2.5 goals (one standard deviation of the final margin), so a 60% favourite still loses 4 times in 10, and the forecast picks about 59% of winners.
Golden Knights by 0.7 · 61% to win
Ours: Golden Knights by 0.7 Ducks win 39% Golden Knights win 61% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Ducks win by Golden Knights win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ducks win 39.0% Golden Knights win 61.0% Middle 50%: Ducks by 1 to Golden Knights by 3 50% Middle 90%: Ducks by 3 to Golden Knights by 4 90% Middle 95%: Ducks by 4 to Golden Knights by 5 95% Exactly Golden Knights by 1 22.3% Exactly Ducks by 1 17.8% Exactly Golden Knights by 3 15.3% Exactly Golden Knights by 2 11.4% Exactly Ducks by 3 8.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Ducks by 1 and Golden Knights by 3. P90 9 in 10 between Ducks by 3 and Golden Knights by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Ducks by 4 and Golden Knights by 5. Where the forecast comes from Last season Golden Knights +0.4 Home ice Golden Knights +0.2
Sabres by 0.8 · 64% to win
Ours: Sabres by 0.8 Blackhawks win 36% Sabres win 64% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Blackhawks win by Sabres win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Blackhawks win 36.5% Sabres win 63.5% Middle 50%: Blackhawks by 1 to Sabres by 3 50% Middle 90%: Blackhawks by 3 to Sabres by 5 90% Middle 95%: Blackhawks by 4 to Sabres by 5 95% Exactly Sabres by 1 22.5% Exactly Blackhawks by 1 17.1% Exactly Sabres by 3 16.2% Exactly Sabres by 2 11.7% Exactly Sabres by 4 8.1%
P50 Half of games like this end between Blackhawks by 1 and Sabres by 3. P90 9 in 10 between Blackhawks by 3 and Sabres by 5. P95 19 in 20 between Blackhawks by 4 and Sabres by 5. Where the forecast comes from Last season Sabres +0.6 Home ice Sabres +0.2
Senators by 0.3 · 56% to win
Ours: Senators by 0.3 Senators win 56% Maple Leafs win 44% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Senators win by Maple Leafs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Senators win 55.8% Maple Leafs win 44.2% Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Maple Leafs by 1 50% Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Maple Leafs by 4 90% Middle 95%: Senators by 5 to Maple Leafs by 4 95% Exactly Senators by 1 21.3% Exactly Maple Leafs by 1 19.6% Exactly Senators by 3 13.4% Exactly Senators by 2 11.3% Exactly Maple Leafs by 3 9.9%
P50 Half of games like this end between Senators by 2 and Maple Leafs by 1. P90 9 in 10 between Senators by 4 and Maple Leafs by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Senators by 5 and Maple Leafs by 4. Where the forecast comes from Last season Senators +0.6 Home ice Maple Leafs +0.2
Lightning by 0.5 · 58% to win
Ours: Lightning by 0.5 Capitals win 42% Lightning win 58% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Capitals win by Lightning win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Capitals win 41.8% Lightning win 58.2% Middle 50%: Capitals by 1 to Lightning by 3 50% Middle 90%: Capitals by 4 to Lightning by 4 90% Middle 95%: Capitals by 4 to Lightning by 5 95% Exactly Lightning by 1 22.1% Exactly Capitals by 1 18.6% Exactly Lightning by 3 14.4% Exactly Lightning by 2 11.0% Exactly Capitals by 3 9.0%
P50 Half of games like this end between Capitals by 1 and Lightning by 3. P90 9 in 10 between Capitals by 4 and Lightning by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Capitals by 4 and Lightning by 5. Where the forecast comes from Last season Lightning +0.3 Home ice Lightning +0.2
Hurricanes by 0.3 · 55% to win
Ours: Hurricanes by 0.3 Hurricanes win 55% Flyers win 45% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Hurricanes win by Flyers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Hurricanes win 54.7% Flyers win 45.3% Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 2 to Flyers by 2 50% Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Flyers by 4 90% Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Flyers by 4 95% Exactly Hurricanes by 1 21.1% Exactly Flyers by 1 19.9% Exactly Hurricanes by 3 13.0% Exactly Hurricanes by 2 11.1% Exactly Flyers by 3 10.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Hurricanes by 2 and Flyers by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Hurricanes by 4 and Flyers by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Hurricanes by 5 and Flyers by 4. Where the forecast comes from Last season Hurricanes +0.5 Home ice Flyers +0.2
Penguins by 0.3 · 55% to win
Ours: Penguins by 0.3 Canadiens win 45% Penguins win 55% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Canadiens win by Penguins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Canadiens win 44.9% Penguins win 55.1% Middle 50%: Canadiens by 2 to Penguins by 2 50% Middle 90%: Canadiens by 4 to Penguins by 4 90% Middle 95%: Canadiens by 4 to Penguins by 5 95% Exactly Penguins by 1 21.7% Exactly Canadiens by 1 19.3% Exactly Penguins by 3 13.3% Exactly Penguins by 2 10.5% Exactly Canadiens by 3 10.0%
P50 Half of games like this end between Canadiens by 2 and Penguins by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Canadiens by 4 and Penguins by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Canadiens by 4 and Penguins by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Penguins +0.2 Last season Penguins +0.1
Blue Jackets by 0.2 · 53% to win
Ours: Blue Jackets by 0.2 Mammoth win 47% Blue Jackets win 53% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Mammoth win by Blue Jackets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Mammoth win 47.4% Blue Jackets win 52.6% Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Blue Jackets by 2 50% Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Blue Jackets by 4 90% Middle 95%: Mammoth by 4 to Blue Jackets by 5 95% Exactly Blue Jackets by 1 21.3% Exactly Mammoth by 1 19.9% Exactly Blue Jackets by 3 12.5% Exactly Mammoth by 3 10.7% Exactly Blue Jackets by 2 10.0%
P50 Half of games like this end between Mammoth by 2 and Blue Jackets by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Mammoth by 4 and Blue Jackets by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Mammoth by 4 and Blue Jackets by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Blue Jackets +0.2 Last season Mammoth +0.1
Oilers by 0.6 · 60% to win
Ours: Oilers by 0.6 Kraken win 40% Oilers win 60% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Kraken win by Oilers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Kraken win 40.3% Oilers win 59.7% Middle 50%: Kraken by 1 to Oilers by 3 50% Middle 90%: Kraken by 4 to Oilers by 4 90% Middle 95%: Kraken by 4 to Oilers by 5 95% Exactly Oilers by 1 22.2% Exactly Kraken by 1 18.2% Exactly Oilers by 3 14.9% Exactly Oilers by 2 11.2% Exactly Kraken by 3 8.6%
P50 Half of games like this end between Kraken by 1 and Oilers by 3. P90 9 in 10 between Kraken by 4 and Oilers by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Kraken by 4 and Oilers by 5. Where the forecast comes from Last season Oilers +0.4 Home ice Oilers +0.2
even · 50% to win
Ours: a tie Devils win 50% Islanders win 50% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Devils win by Islanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Devils win 50.0% Islanders win 50.0% Middle 50%: Devils by 2 to Islanders by 2 50% Middle 90%: Devils by 4 to Islanders by 4 90% Middle 95%: Devils by 5 to Islanders by 5 95% Exactly Islanders by 1 20.9% Exactly Devils by 1 20.4% Exactly Islanders by 3 11.7% Exactly Devils by 3 11.5% Exactly Devils by 2 10.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Devils by 2 and Islanders by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Devils by 4 and Islanders by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Devils by 5 and Islanders by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Islanders +0.2 Last season Devils +0.2
Stars by 0.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Stars by 0.2 Stars win 54% Predators win 46% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Stars win by Predators win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Stars win 53.8% Predators win 46.2% Middle 50%: Stars by 2 to Predators by 2 50% Middle 90%: Stars by 4 to Predators by 4 90% Middle 95%: Stars by 5 to Predators by 4 95% Exactly Stars by 1 21.0% Exactly Predators by 1 20.1% Exactly Stars by 3 12.7% Exactly Stars by 2 10.9% Exactly Predators by 3 10.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Stars by 2 and Predators by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Stars by 4 and Predators by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Stars by 5 and Predators by 4. Where the forecast comes from Last season Stars +0.5 Home ice Predators +0.2
Wild by 0.5 · 58% to win
Ours: Wild by 0.5 Bruins win 42% Wild win 58% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Bruins win by Wild win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bruins win 41.6% Wild win 58.4% Middle 50%: Bruins by 1 to Wild by 3 50% Middle 90%: Bruins by 4 to Wild by 4 90% Middle 95%: Bruins by 4 to Wild by 5 95% Exactly Wild by 1 22.1% Exactly Bruins by 1 18.5% Exactly Wild by 3 14.4% Exactly Wild by 2 11.0% Exactly Bruins by 3 9.0%
P50 Half of games like this end between Bruins by 1 and Wild by 3. P90 9 in 10 between Bruins by 4 and Wild by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Bruins by 4 and Wild by 5. Where the forecast comes from Last season Wild +0.3 Home ice Wild +0.2
Avalanche by 0.9 · 65% to win
Ours: Avalanche by 0.9 Blues win 35% Avalanche win 65% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Blues win by Avalanche win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Blues win 35.4% Avalanche win 64.6% Middle 50%: Blues by 1 to Avalanche by 3 50% Middle 90%: Blues by 3 to Avalanche by 5 90% Middle 95%: Blues by 4 to Avalanche by 5 95% Exactly Avalanche by 1 22.5% Exactly Blues by 1 16.8% Exactly Avalanche by 3 16.5% Exactly Avalanche by 2 11.9% Exactly Avalanche by 4 8.4%
P50 Half of games like this end between Blues by 1 and Avalanche by 3. P90 9 in 10 between Blues by 3 and Avalanche by 5. P95 19 in 20 between Blues by 4 and Avalanche by 5. Where the forecast comes from Last season Avalanche +0.7 Home ice Avalanche +0.2
even · 50% to win
Ours: a tie Flames win 50% Canucks win 50% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Flames win by Canucks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Flames win 49.6% Canucks win 50.4% Middle 50%: Flames by 2 to Canucks by 2 50% Middle 90%: Flames by 4 to Canucks by 4 90% Middle 95%: Flames by 5 to Canucks by 5 95% Exactly Canucks by 1 20.9% Exactly Flames by 1 20.3% Exactly Canucks by 3 11.8% Exactly Flames by 3 11.4% Exactly Flames by 2 10.1%
P50 Half of games like this end between Flames by 2 and Canucks by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Flames by 4 and Canucks by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Flames by 5 and Canucks by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Canucks +0.2 Last season Flames +0.2
Kings by 0.2 · 53% to win
Ours: Kings by 0.2 Kings win 53% Sharks win 47% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Kings win by Sharks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Kings win 53.3% Sharks win 46.8% Middle 50%: Kings by 2 to Sharks by 2 50% Middle 90%: Kings by 4 to Sharks by 4 90% Middle 95%: Kings by 5 to Sharks by 4 95% Exactly Kings by 1 20.9% Exactly Sharks by 1 20.2% Exactly Kings by 3 12.5% Exactly Kings by 2 10.8% Exactly Sharks by 3 10.7%
P50 Half of games like this end between Kings by 2 and Sharks by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Kings by 4 and Sharks by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Kings by 5 and Sharks by 4. Where the forecast comes from Last season Kings +0.4 Home ice Sharks +0.2
Red Wings by 0.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Red Wings by 0.2 Jets win 46% Red Wings win 54% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Jets win by Red Wings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 46.4% Red Wings win 53.6% Middle 50%: Jets by 2 to Red Wings by 2 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 4 to Red Wings by 4 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 4 to Red Wings by 5 95% Exactly Red Wings by 1 21.5% Exactly Jets by 1 19.6% Exactly Red Wings by 3 12.8% Exactly Jets by 3 10.4% Exactly Red Wings by 2 10.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Jets by 2 and Red Wings by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Jets by 4 and Red Wings by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Jets by 4 and Red Wings by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Red Wings +0.2
Mammoth by 0.1 · 51% to win
Ours: Mammoth by 0.1 Mammoth win 51% Rangers win 49% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Mammoth win by Rangers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Mammoth win 51.4% Rangers win 48.6% Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Rangers by 2 50% Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Rangers by 4 90% Middle 95%: Mammoth by 5 to Rangers by 4 95% Exactly Mammoth by 1 20.6% Exactly Rangers by 1 20.6% Exactly Mammoth by 3 11.9% Exactly Rangers by 3 11.3% Exactly Mammoth by 2 10.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Mammoth by 2 and Rangers by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Mammoth by 4 and Rangers by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Mammoth by 5 and Rangers by 4. Where the forecast comes from Last season Mammoth +0.3 Home ice Rangers +0.2
Ducks by 0.2 · 53% to win
Ours: Ducks by 0.2 Panthers win 47% Ducks win 53% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Panthers win by Ducks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 47.1% Ducks win 52.9% Middle 50%: Panthers by 2 to Ducks by 2 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 4 to Ducks by 4 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 4 to Ducks by 5 95% Exactly Ducks by 1 21.4% Exactly Panthers by 1 19.8% Exactly Ducks by 3 12.6% Exactly Panthers by 3 10.6% Exactly Ducks by 2 10.1%
P50 Half of games like this end between Panthers by 2 and Ducks by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Panthers by 4 and Ducks by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Panthers by 4 and Ducks by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Ducks +0.2 Last season Panthers +0.1
Kraken by 0.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Kraken by 0.2 Flames win 46% Kraken win 54% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Flames win by Kraken win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Flames win 45.8% Kraken win 54.2% Middle 50%: Flames by 2 to Kraken by 2 50% Middle 90%: Flames by 4 to Kraken by 4 90% Middle 95%: Flames by 4 to Kraken by 5 95% Exactly Kraken by 1 21.6% Exactly Flames by 1 19.5% Exactly Kraken by 3 13.0% Exactly Kraken by 2 10.3% Exactly Flames by 3 10.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Flames by 2 and Kraken by 2. P90 9 in 10 between Flames by 4 and Kraken by 4. P95 19 in 20 between Flames by 4 and Kraken by 5. Where the forecast comes from Home ice Kraken +0.2
Golden Knights by 0.7 · 61% to win
Ours: Golden Knights by 0.7 Golden Knights win 61% Canucks win 39% 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 ← Golden Knights win by Canucks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Golden Knights win 61.5% Canucks win 38.5% Middle 50%: Golden Knights by 3 to Canucks by 1 50% Middle 90%: Golden Knights by 4 to Canucks by 3 90% Middle 95%: Golden Knights by 5 to Canucks by 4 95% Exactly Golden Knights by 1 21.8% Exactly Canucks by 1 18.1% Exactly Golden Knights by 3 15.2% Exactly Golden Knights by 2 12.2% Exactly Canucks by 3 8.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Golden Knights by 3 and Canucks by 1. P90 9 in 10 between Golden Knights by 4 and Canucks by 3. P95 19 in 20 between Golden Knights by 5 and Canucks by 4. Where the forecast comes from Last season Golden Knights +0.9 Home ice Canucks +0.2
How good is it? This season so far: 50.0% of 20 games picked right (log loss 0.717). The 16 games played before the forecasts went live were forecast afterwards from what was known before each puck drop.
Every game from 2021-22 to 2025-26, regular season and playoffs, each forecast from the games before it (6,993 games):
Log loss and Brier score the probability, not just the pick: lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693 and 0.250. Hockey picks run lower than football’s because one goal decides so many games.
Its win chances and ranges are honest: the P90 range held 94% of final margins, the P95 range 97%, and games given 60% went to the favourite about 60% of the time.
What goes in, and what doesn’t This season. Each team’s goal margins (capped at 4, so an empty-net blowout doesn’t count for too much) and its expected-goal margins, rated against the opponents it has played.Last season. Each team starts from where it finished, pulled part of the way back toward average.Home ice. Worth about a fifth of a goal. Not in it: who starts in goal, injuries and trades, and the betting line.
Power rankings · How the luck is measured · Deserve-to-win meter
Ducks at 
Golden Knights
Blackhawks
Sabres
Senators
Maple Leafs
Capitals
Lightning
Hurricanes
Flyers
Canadiens
Penguins
Mammoth
Blue Jackets
Kraken
Oilers
Devils
Islanders
Stars
Predators
Bruins
Wild
Blues
Avalanche
Flames
Canucks
Kings
Sharks
Jets
Red Wings
Rangers
Panthers