luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 NHL season · Oct 26, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026

NHL week 5: who deserved to win

3 of 47 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Blue Jackets beat the Flyers 4–3 (OT) in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 47 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Blue Jackets W 4–3 OT @ Flyers Oct 27, 2026 23% +77
2 Canadiens W 2–0 @ Blues Oct 27, 2026 33% +67
3 Wild W 5–1 @ Capitals Nov 1, 2026 40% +60
4 Red Wings W 4–3 SO @ Oilers Oct 26, 2026 41% +59
5 Islanders W 4–3 SO @ Predators Oct 27, 2026 44% +56
6 Flyers W 6–3 vs Mammoth Nov 1, 2026 45% +55
7 Sabres W 3–2 @ Kings Oct 31, 2026 46% +54
8 Blues W 4–1 vs Bruins Oct 29, 2026 47% +53
9 Stars W 3–1 vs Blue Jackets Oct 31, 2026 48% +52
10 Bruins W 5–4 OT vs Blackhawks Oct 31, 2026 48% +52
11 Ducks W 6–3 vs Senators Nov 1, 2026 50% +50
12 Flames W 6–2 vs Kraken Oct 30, 2026 51% +49
13 Sabres W 7–6 @ Ducks Oct 29, 2026 51% +49
14 Capitals W 4–3 @ Predators Oct 29, 2026 52% +48
15 Blackhawks W 2–1 vs Kings Oct 27, 2026 52% +48
16 Canadiens W 5–4 vs Penguins Oct 31, 2026 52% +48
17 Oilers W 4–0 @ Islanders Oct 31, 2026 53% +47
18 Hurricanes W 3–2 vs Blue Jackets Oct 29, 2026 53% +47
19 Blues W 5–4 @ Red Wings Oct 31, 2026 55% +45
20 Kings W 6–3 @ Rangers Oct 26, 2026 55% +45
21 Islanders W 4–3 OT @ Wild Oct 29, 2026 55% +45
22 Flames W 5–2 vs Maple Leafs Oct 26, 2026 56% +44
23 Canadiens W 5–2 @ Stars Oct 29, 2026 56% +44
24 Predators W 5–4 SO vs Lightning Oct 31, 2026 56% +44
25 Mammoth W 4–3 OT @ Penguins Oct 29, 2026 56% +44
26 Devils W 5–1 @ Stars Oct 27, 2026 57% +43
27 Maple Leafs W 4–2 @ Canucks Oct 31, 2026 57% +43
28 Panthers W 5–1 @ Jets Oct 27, 2026 58% +42
29 Sharks W 3–2 vs Canucks Oct 29, 2026 59% +41
30 Oilers W 4–1 @ Rangers Nov 1, 2026 60% +40
31 Kraken W 5–4 vs Maple Leafs Oct 28, 2026 60% +40
32 Golden Knights W 4–1 vs Senators Oct 27, 2026 61% +39
33 Wild W 3–1 @ Mammoth Oct 27, 2026 61% +39
34 Canucks W 6–5 OT @ Ducks Oct 27, 2026 62% +38
35 Devils W 5–2 @ Golden Knights Oct 30, 2026 62% +38
36 Hurricanes W 2–1 vs Bruins Oct 27, 2026 64% +36
37 Oilers W 4–0 vs Flames Oct 28, 2026 65% +35
38 Avalanche W 5–2 vs Flames Oct 31, 2026 67% +33
39 Capitals W 5–2 vs Flyers Oct 28, 2026 69% +31
40 Sabres W 2–0 @ Sharks Oct 27, 2026 69% +31
41 Panthers W 5–2 vs Jets Oct 30, 2026 70% +30
42 Avalanche W 5–2 vs Devils Oct 28, 2026 72% +28
43 Hurricanes W 7–0 vs Jets Nov 1, 2026 74% +26
44 Senators W 5–1 @ Sharks Oct 31, 2026 79% +21
45 Lightning W 6–4 vs Jets Oct 29, 2026 80% +20
46 Red Wings W 4–1 vs Blackhawks Oct 29, 2026 81% +19
47 Kings W 6–5 OT vs Senators Oct 29, 2026 82% +18
48 Senators L 5–6 OT @ Kings Oct 29, 2026 18% −18
49 Blackhawks L 1–4 @ Red Wings Oct 29, 2026 19% −19
50 Jets L 4–6 @ Lightning Oct 29, 2026 20% −20
51 Sharks L 1–5 vs Senators Oct 31, 2026 21% −21
52 Jets L 0–7 @ Hurricanes Nov 1, 2026 26% −26
53 Devils L 2–5 @ Avalanche Oct 28, 2026 28% −28
54 Jets L 2–5 @ Panthers Oct 30, 2026 30% −30
55 Sharks L 0–2 vs Sabres Oct 27, 2026 31% −31
56 Flyers L 2–5 @ Capitals Oct 28, 2026 31% −31
57 Flames L 2–5 @ Avalanche Oct 31, 2026 33% −33
58 Flames L 0–4 @ Oilers Oct 28, 2026 35% −35
59 Bruins L 1–2 @ Hurricanes Oct 27, 2026 36% −36
60 Golden Knights L 2–5 vs Devils Oct 30, 2026 38% −38
61 Ducks L 5–6 OT vs Canucks Oct 27, 2026 38% −38
62 Mammoth L 1–3 vs Wild Oct 27, 2026 39% −39
63 Senators L 1–4 @ Golden Knights Oct 27, 2026 39% −39
64 Maple Leafs L 4–5 @ Kraken Oct 28, 2026 40% −40
65 Rangers L 1–4 vs Oilers Nov 1, 2026 40% −40
66 Canucks L 2–3 @ Sharks Oct 29, 2026 41% −41
67 Jets L 1–5 vs Panthers Oct 27, 2026 42% −42
68 Canucks L 2–4 vs Maple Leafs Oct 31, 2026 43% −43
69 Stars L 1–5 vs Devils Oct 27, 2026 43% −43
70 Penguins L 3–4 OT vs Mammoth Oct 29, 2026 44% −44
71 Lightning L 4–5 SO @ Predators Oct 31, 2026 44% −44
72 Stars L 2–5 vs Canadiens Oct 29, 2026 44% −44
73 Maple Leafs L 2–5 @ Flames Oct 26, 2026 44% −44
74 Wild L 3–4 OT vs Islanders Oct 29, 2026 45% −45
75 Rangers L 3–6 vs Kings Oct 26, 2026 45% −45
76 Red Wings L 4–5 vs Blues Oct 31, 2026 45% −45
77 Blue Jackets L 2–3 @ Hurricanes Oct 29, 2026 47% −47
78 Islanders L 0–4 vs Oilers Oct 31, 2026 47% −47
79 Penguins L 4–5 @ Canadiens Oct 31, 2026 48% −48
80 Kings L 1–2 @ Blackhawks Oct 27, 2026 48% −48
81 Predators L 3–4 vs Capitals Oct 29, 2026 48% −48
82 Ducks L 6–7 vs Sabres Oct 29, 2026 49% −49
83 Kraken L 2–6 @ Flames Oct 30, 2026 49% −49
84 Senators L 3–6 @ Ducks Nov 1, 2026 50% −50
85 Blackhawks L 4–5 OT @ Bruins Oct 31, 2026 52% −52
86 Blue Jackets L 1–3 @ Stars Oct 31, 2026 52% −52
87 Bruins L 1–4 @ Blues Oct 29, 2026 53% −53
88 Kings L 2–3 vs Sabres Oct 31, 2026 54% −54
89 Mammoth L 3–6 @ Flyers Nov 1, 2026 55% −55
90 Predators L 3–4 SO vs Islanders Oct 27, 2026 56% −56
91 Oilers L 3–4 SO vs Red Wings Oct 26, 2026 59% −59
92 Capitals L 1–5 vs Wild Nov 1, 2026 60% −60
93 Blues L 0–2 vs Canadiens Oct 27, 2026 67% −67
94 Flyers L 3–4 OT vs Blue Jackets Oct 27, 2026 77% −77