2026-27 regular season · October 29, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Kings, Oct 29, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Senators 6–5, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Kings win 8 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Senators.
The biggest swing (OT): the Kings won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Kings.
Final (OT)
 Ottawa Senators | 5 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Kings about even · −18 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 2, Kings win 8.
- 1 OTT 3 LAK 1
- 2 OTT 6 LAK 5
- 3 OTT 3 LAK 4
- 4 OTT 5 LAK 7
- 5 OTT 0 LAK 3
- 6 OTT 2 LAK 5
- 7 OTT 2 LAK 6
- 8 OTT 1 LAK 6
- 9 OTT 1 LAK 7
- 10 OTT 1 LAK 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Kings won by 1. The final margin was 1.0 goal from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Senators win | 49.6% |
| Kings win | 50.4% |
| Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Kings by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Kings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Senators by 5 to Kings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Kings by 1 | 20.9% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Kings by 3 | 11.8% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 11.4% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 29, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Senators win 18% of them, Kings 82%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 3.0% |
| Senators by 2 | 3.0% |
| Senators by 1 | 12.0% |
| Kings by 1 | 12.8% |
| Kings by 2 | 10.4% |
| Kings by 3+ | 58.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 31 | 5 | 1.90 | +3.10 |
 Kings | 48 | 5 | 4.38 | +0.62 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 6:32 | Interference on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P1 1:44 | Slashing on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P2 8:45 | Boarding on the Senators (Hayden Hodgson): 3 minutes on the power play | +2% LAK |
| P2 7:53 | Cross checking on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% OTT |
| P2 5:51 | Hooking on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% LAK |
| P2 2:26 | Hooking on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% LAK |
| P3 18:11 | Roughing on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% LAK |
| P3 10:53 | High sticking on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% OTT |
| P3 7:37 | Interference on the Kings (Erik Gustafsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% OTT |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 8:36 | Tyler Kleven scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance | +16% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 4:51 | Erik Haula scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance | +16% LAK | – |
| 3 | P2 13:09 | Trevor Moore scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance | +18% LAK | – |
| 4 | P2 9:43 | Mikey Anderson scored on a slap shot from 45 feetShooting · 4% chance | +14% LAK | – |
| 5 | P3 7:26 | Dylan Cozens scored on a poke shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance | +10% OTT | – |
| 6 | P3 5:55 | Stephen Halliday’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +9% LAK | – |
| 7 | P3 1:40 | Shane Pinto scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance | +39% OTT | – |
| 8 | OT | The Kings won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 15% · Kings 85%
- Final margin
- Kings by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 18% · Kings 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
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