2026-27 regular season · October 31, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sabres at Kings, Oct 31, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Sabres beat the Kings 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sabres win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 29 points of win probability to the Sabres.
The biggest swing (P3, 6:20 left): Tage Thompson scored on a snap shot from 25 feet, worth 30 points of win probability to the Sabres.
Final
 Buffalo Sabres | 3 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Sabres lucky · −54 Kings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sabres win 5, Kings win 5.
- 1 BUF 3 LAK 0
- 2 BUF 4 LAK 1
- 3 BUF 4 LAK 2
- 4 BUF 3 LAK 2
- 5 BUF 3 LAK 2
- 6 BUF 2 LAK 3
- 7 BUF 3 LAK 4
- 8 BUF 2 LAK 4
- 9 BUF 1 LAK 4
- 10 BUF 3 LAK 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Kings by 0.3, 55% to win. The Sabres won by 1, a result we gave 45%. The final margin was 1.3 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sabres win | 45.1% |
| Kings win | 54.9% |
| Middle 50%: Sabres by 2 to Kings by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Sabres by 4 to Kings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Sabres by 4 to Kings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Kings by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Sabres by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Kings by 3 | 13.3% |
| Exactly Kings by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Sabres by 3 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 31, 11:57 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Sabres win 46% of them, Kings 54%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sabres by 3+ | 15.8% |
| Sabres by 2 | 8.8% |
| Sabres by 1 | 20.9% |
| Kings by 1 | 22.1% |
| Kings by 2 | 10.8% |
| Kings by 3+ | 21.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sabres | 40 | 3 | 2.45 | +0.55 |
 Kings | 49 | 2 | 3.27 | −1.27 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:36 | Slashing on the Kings (Corey Perry): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P1 2:07 | Slashing on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P2 11:14 | Slashing on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P2 7:12 | Holding on the Sabres (Louis Crevier): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% LAK |
| P2 2:46 | Slashing on the Sabres (Ryan McLeod): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P2 0:40 | Cross checking on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% LAK |
| P3 6:31 | Tripping on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play | +8% BUF |
| P3 3:39 | Roughing on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% LAK |
| P3 0:00 | Slashing on the Sabres (Peyton Krebs): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% LAK |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:25 | Jack Quinn scored on a snap shot from 38 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% BUF | – |
| 2 | P2 4:22 | Tage Thompson scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% BUF | – |
| 3 | P2 2:36 | Corey Perry scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance | +14% LAK | – |
| 4 | P3 18:31 | Andre Lee scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance | +23% LAK | – |
| 5 | P3 6:31 | Tripping on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% BUF | – |
| 6 | P3 6:20 | Tage Thompson scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 19% chance | +30% BUF | – |
| 7 | P3 0:37 | Corey Perry’s tip from 7 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance | +6% BUF | – |
| 8 | P3 0:31 | Brandt Clarke missed the net with a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance | +7% BUF | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sabres 53% · Kings 47%
- Final margin
- Sabres by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Sabres
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sabres by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sabres 46% · Kings 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
- Canadiens at Blues Oct 27, 2026 · MTL 2–0 · replay 33% for the winner
- Red Wings at Oilers Oct 26, 2026 · DET 4–3 SO · replay 41% for the winner
- Bruins at Blues Oct 29, 2026 · STL 4–1 · replay 47% for the winner
- Blackhawks at Bruins Oct 31, 2026 · BOS 5–4 OT · replay 48% for the winner
- Senators at Ducks Nov 1, 2026 · ANA 6–3 · replay 50% for the winner
- Kraken at Flames Oct 30, 2026 · CGY 6–2 · replay 51% for the winner
- Sabres at Ducks Oct 29, 2026 · BUF 7–6 · replay 51% for the winner
- Kings at Blackhawks Oct 27, 2026 · CHI 2–1 · replay 52% for the winner
- Penguins at Canadiens Oct 31, 2026 · MTL 5–4 · replay 52% for the winner
- Oilers at Islanders Oct 31, 2026 · EDM 4–0 · replay 53% for the winner
- Blues at Red Wings Oct 31, 2026 · STL 5–4 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kings at Rangers Oct 26, 2026 · LAK 6–3 · replay 55% for the winner