2026-27 regular season · October 26, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kings at Rangers, Oct 26, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Rangers 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Kings.
The biggest swing (P1, 2:28 left): Drew Doughty scored on a snap shot from 59 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Kings.
Final
 Los Angeles Kings | 6 |
|---|---|
 New York Rangers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Kings lucky · −45 Rangers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kings win 5, Rangers win 5.
- 1 LAK 6 NYR 2
- 2 LAK 6 NYR 3
- 3 LAK 5 NYR 3
- 4 LAK 3 NYR 2
- 5 LAK 2 NYR 1
- 6 LAK 2 NYR 3
- 7 LAK 2 NYR 3
- 8 LAK 2 NYR 3
- 9 LAK 1 NYR 3
- 10 LAK 0 NYR 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Rangers by 0.1, 53% to win. The Kings won by 3, a result we gave 47%. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kings win | 47.4% |
| Rangers win | 52.6% |
| Middle 50%: Kings by 2 to Rangers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Kings by 4 to Rangers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Kings by 4 to Rangers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Rangers by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Kings by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Rangers by 3 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Kings by 3 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Rangers by 2 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 26, 1:05 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Kings win 55% of them, Rangers 45%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kings by 3+ | 21.9% |
| Kings by 2 | 10.9% |
| Kings by 1 | 21.9% |
| Rangers by 1 | 21.3% |
| Rangers by 2 | 9.8% |
| Rangers by 3+ | 14.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kings | 41 | 5 | 2.84 | +2.16 |
 Rangers | 42 | 3 | 2.75 | +0.25 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 18:44 | Tripping on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P2 12:34 | A Kings goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +3% NYR |
| P2 7:20 | Slashing on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NYR |
| P2 1:07 | Roughing on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% LAK |
| P3 18:02 | Interference on the Rangers (Alberts Smits): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% LAK |
When it happened
Rangers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:45 | Taylor Ward scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% LAK | – |
| 2 | P1 15:08 | Brandt Clarke scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance | +13% LAK | – |
| 3 | P1 6:59 | J.T. Miller scored on a deflected shot from 4 feetShooting · 20% chance | +12% NYR | – |
| 4 | P1 2:50 | Adrian Kempe’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +4% NYR | – |
| 5 | P1 2:28 | Drew Doughty scored on a snap shot from 59 feetShooting · 2% chance | +15% LAK | – |
| 6 | P2 18:44 | Braden Schneider missed the net with a slap shot from 67 feetShooting · 1% chanceTripping on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% LAK | – |
| 7 | P2 18:30 | Artemi Panarin scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 6% chance | +10% LAK | – |
| 8 | P2 13:06 | Mikey Anderson scored on a slap shot from 48 feetShooting · 2% chance | +4% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kings 73% · Rangers 27%
- Final margin
- Kings by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for the Kings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kings 55% · Rangers 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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