2026-27 regular season · October 27, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Flyers, Oct 27, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blue Jackets beat the Flyers 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Flyers: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Blue Jackets won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
Final (OT)
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 4 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Blue Jackets very lucky · −77 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 2, Flyers win 8.
- 1 CBJ 3 PHI 1
- 2 CBJ 1 PHI 0
- 3 CBJ 1 PHI 2
- 4 CBJ 4 PHI 5
- 5 CBJ 1 PHI 3
- 6 CBJ 0 PHI 3
- 7 CBJ 1 PHI 4
- 8 CBJ 3 PHI 6
- 9 CBJ 0 PHI 4
- 10 CBJ 0 PHI 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Blue Jackets by 0.1, 52% to win. The Blue Jackets won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets win | 51.8% |
| Flyers win | 48.2% |
| Middle 50%: Blue Jackets by 2 to Flyers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blue Jackets by 4 to Flyers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blue Jackets by 5 to Flyers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 1 | 20.7% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 20.5% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 3 | 12.1% |
| Exactly Flyers by 3 | 11.1% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 2 | 10.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 27, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 23% of them, Flyers 77%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 3.3% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 4.3% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 15.5% |
| Flyers by 1 | 17.1% |
| Flyers by 2 | 14.1% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 45.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 23 | 3 | 1.26 | +1.74 |
 Flyers | 41 | 3 | 4.01 | −1.01 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 5:57 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Sean Monahan): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% PHI |
| P1 0:54 | Holding on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% CBJ |
| P3 9:04 | Interference on the Blue Jackets (Jake Christiansen): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% PHI |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:02 | Adam Fantilli scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 14% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 2 | P1 7:06 | Kent Johnson scored on a deflected shot from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance | +12% CBJ | – |
| 3 | P1 6:16 | Denton Mateychuk scored on a snap shot from 42 feetShooting · 6% chance | +10% CBJ | – |
| 4 | P3 4:56 | Trevor Zegras scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 18% chance | +9% PHI | – |
| 5 | P3 0:32 | Travis Sanheim’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +9% CBJ | – |
| 6 | P3 0:28 | Tyson Foerster’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +7% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P3 0:11 | Jamie Drysdale scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance | +41% PHI | – |
| 8 | OT | The game turned hereThe Blue Jackets won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +51% CBJ | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 8% · Flyers 92%
- Final margin
- Blue Jackets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 3.1 for the Blue Jackets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flyers by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 23% · Flyers 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
- Wild at Capitals Nov 1, 2026 · MIN 5–1 · replay 40% for the winner
- Islanders at Predators Oct 27, 2026 · NYI 4–3 SO · replay 44% for the winner
- Mammoth at Flyers Nov 1, 2026 · PHI 6–3 · replay 45% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Stars Oct 31, 2026 · DAL 3–1 · replay 48% for the winner
- Capitals at Predators Oct 29, 2026 · WSH 4–3 · replay 52% for the winner
- Penguins at Canadiens Oct 31, 2026 · MTL 5–4 · replay 52% for the winner
- Oilers at Islanders Oct 31, 2026 · EDM 4–0 · replay 53% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Hurricanes Oct 29, 2026 · CAR 3–2 · replay 53% for the winner
- Kings at Rangers Oct 26, 2026 · LAK 6–3 · replay 55% for the winner
- Islanders at Wild Oct 29, 2026 · NYI 4–3 OT · replay 55% for the winner
- Mammoth at Penguins Oct 29, 2026 · UTA 4–3 OT · replay 56% for the winner
- Devils at Stars Oct 27, 2026 · NJD 5–1 · replay 57% for the winner