2026-27 regular season · October 29, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Capitals at Predators, Oct 29, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Capitals beat the Predators 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Capitals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Capitals.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 6:14 left): Cole Hutson scored on a snap shot from 28 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Capitals. The biggest single swing (P3, 9:51 left): Alex Tuch scored on a wrist shot from 29 feet.
Final
 Washington Capitals | 4 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Capitals lucky · −48 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Capitals win 5, Predators win 5.
- 1 WSH 4 NSH 0
- 2 WSH 4 NSH 1
- 3 WSH 3 NSH 1
- 4 WSH 5 NSH 4
- 5 WSH 4 NSH 3
- 6 WSH 4 NSH 5
- 7 WSH 3 NSH 4
- 8 WSH 2 NSH 4
- 9 WSH 0 NSH 3
- 10 WSH 0 NSH 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Capitals by 0.2, 53% to win. The Capitals won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Capitals win | 52.7% |
| Predators win | 47.3% |
| Middle 50%: Capitals by 2 to Predators by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Capitals by 4 to Predators by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Capitals by 5 to Predators by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Capitals by 1 | 20.8% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Capitals by 3 | 12.4% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 10.9% |
| Exactly Capitals by 2 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 29, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Capitals win 52% of them, Predators 48%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Capitals by 3+ | 19.1% |
| Capitals by 2 | 10.3% |
| Capitals by 1 | 22.3% |
| Predators by 1 | 23.1% |
| Predators by 2 | 9.6% |
| Predators by 3+ | 15.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Capitals | 47 | 4 | 2.66 | +1.34 |
 Predators | 42 | 3 | 2.58 | +0.42 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 9:03 | Hooking on the Capitals (Timothy Liljegren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 8:59 | High sticking on the Capitals (Martin Fehérváry): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 17:49 | Slashing on the Predators (Nils Hoglander): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P2 6:08 | Tripping on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WSH |
| P3 19:21 | Interference on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:12 | Filip Forsberg scored on a slap shot from 32 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 3:47 | Cole Hutson scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 3% chance | +17% WSH | – |
| 3 | P2 15:45 | Boone Jenner scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance | +17% WSH | – |
| 4 | P2 10:51 | Filip Forsberg scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance | +18% NSH | – |
| 5 | P2 6:14 | The game turned hereCole Hutson scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 12% chance | +20% WSH | – |
| 6 | P3 15:42 | Filip Forsberg missed the net with a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 21% chance | +6% WSH | – |
| 7 | P3 13:26 | Ross Colton scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance | +25% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 9:51 | Alex Tuch scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 6% chance | +31% WSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Capitals 52% · Predators 48%
- Final margin
- Capitals by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Capitals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Capitals by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Capitals 52% · Predators 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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