2026-27 regular season · October 27, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canadiens at Blues, Oct 27, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Blues 2–0, but the replays lean toward the Blues: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 57 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The biggest swing (P2, 11:23 left): Zachary Bolduc scored on a snap shot from 24 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
Final
 Montreal Canadiens | 2 |
|---|---|
 St. Louis Blues | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Canadiens very lucky · −67 Blues
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Blues win 7.
- 1 MTL 4 STL 1
- 2 MTL 3 STL 2
- 3 MTL 3 STL 2
- 4 MTL 2 STL 3
- 5 MTL 5 STL 6
- 6 MTL 1 STL 3
- 7 MTL 1 STL 4
- 8 MTL 1 STL 4
- 9 MTL 3 STL 6
- 10 MTL 0 STL 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Blues by 0.1, 52% to win. The Canadiens won by 2, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 2.1 goals from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Canadiens win | 47.5% |
| Blues win | 52.5% |
| Middle 50%: Canadiens by 2 to Blues by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Canadiens by 4 to Blues by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Canadiens by 4 to Blues by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Blues by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Blues by 3 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 3 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Blues by 2 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 27, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Canadiens win 33% of them, Blues 67%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canadiens by 3+ | 7.8% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 6.4% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 19.3% |
| Blues by 1 | 21.0% |
| Blues by 2 | 11.7% |
| Blues by 3+ | 33.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canadiens | 35 | 2 | 2.17 | −0.17 |
 Blues | 61 | 0 | 4.34 | −4.34 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:24 | Interference on the Blues (Dalibor Dvorsky): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 5:02 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Oliver Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P2 18:07 | Closing hand on puck on the Blues (Jonatan Berggren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 13:26 | Holding on the Blues (Robert Thomas): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 6:44 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% STL |
| P2 1:47 | Cross checking on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% STL |
When it happened
Blues’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 18:07 | Closing hand on puck on the Blues (Jonatan Berggren): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% MTL | – |
| 2 | P2 14:26 | Alexandre Texier missed the net with a wraparound from 2 feetShooting · 23% chance | +5% STL | – |
| 3 | P2 13:27 | Juraj Slafkovský’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +5% STL | – |
| 4 | P2 13:26 | Holding on the Blues (Robert Thomas): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% MTL | – |
| 5 | P2 11:23 | Zachary Bolduc scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 5% chance | +20% MTL | – |
| 6 | P2 6:44 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% STL | – |
| 7 | P2 1:47 | Cross checking on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% STL | – |
| 8 | P3 17:43 | Florian Xhekaj scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canadiens 47% · Blues 53%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blues by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Canadiens 33% · Blues 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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