Were the Canadiens lucky in 2025-26?

Yes: +18.2 points against what their play was worth, the 2nd-luckiest of 32.

Where did the Canadiens’ luck come from?

Goaltending +13.2 goals, Shooting +12.1 goals, Overtime +5.1 goals, Shootout −1.0 goals, Empty-net goals −8.6 goals.

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens went 48–24–10 (106 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 87.8 points. Luck added 18.2: the 2nd-luckiest of 32. PDO 1.017; 48.6% of the expected goals in their games.

Atlantic Division, 2025-26

#	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Without luck
1	Sabres	82	50–23–9	109	95.4	3rd
2	Lightning	82	50–26–6	106	105.1	1st
3	Canadiens	82	48–24–10	106	87.8	4th
4	Bruins	82	45–27–10	100	81.1	7th
5	Senators	82	44–27–11	99	99.7	2nd
6	Red Wings	82	41–31–10	92	84.8	6th
7	Panthers	82	40–38–4	84	85.3	5th
8	Maple Leafs	82	32–36–14	78	71.4	8th

Every division, adjusted for luck

Where the luck came from, 2025-26

Goaltending +13.2

Shooting +12.1

Overtime +5.1

Shootout −1.0

Empty-net goals −8.6

Goals of margin luck added (right) or cost (left) over the season, each kind at its fitted luck share; overtime and shootout wins count two.

Season by season

Season	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Luck
2026-27	1–0–0	2	1.6	+0.4
2025-26	48–24–10	106	87.8	+18.2

Luckiest wins

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Mar 7, 2026	@ Kings	W 4–3	23%	+77
Jan 17, 2026	@ Senators	W 6–5	25%	+75
2025-26 first round, game 7	@ Lightning	W 2–1	25%	+75
Feb 4, 2026	@ Jets	W 5–1	25%	+75
Dec 20, 2025	vs Penguins	W 4–0	30%	+70

Unluckiest losses

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Dec 28, 2025	@ Lightning	L 4–5	65%	−65
Apr 14, 2026	@ Flyers	L 2–4	64%	−64
Oct 8, 2025	@ Maple Leafs	L 2–5	62%	−62
Dec 16, 2025	vs Flyers	L 1–4	59%	−59
Dec 9, 2025	vs Lightning	L 1–6	58%	−58

Division rivals

Bruins · Sabres · Red Wings · Panthers · Senators · Lightning · Maple Leafs

Every NHL team · 2025-26 luck rankings · How the luck is measured