2025-26 season · final
Montreal Canadiens, 2025-26: game by game
The Canadiens went 48–24–10 (106 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 87.8 points. Luck added 18.2: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 23–16; in overtime 10–5, in the shootout 4–5.
Playoffs: 9–10.
Every game
How often the Canadiens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 2–5 | 62% | −62 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Red Wings | W 5–1 | 34% | +66 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | W 3–2 | 73% | +27 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 5–4 | 50% | +50 | OT |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vs Predators | W 3–2 | 57% | +43 | OT |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 3–4 | 46% | −46 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Sabres | W 4–2 | 35% | +65 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Flames | W 2–1 | 51% | +49 | OT |
| Oct 23, 2025 | @ Oilers | L 5–6 | 57% | −57 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Canucks | W 4–3 | 48% | +52 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Kraken | W 4–3 | 47% | +53 | OT |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Senators | W 4–3 | 74% | +27 | OT |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs Flyers | L 4–5 | 27% | −27 | SO |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Devils | L 3–4 | 48% | −48 | OT |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 6–2 | 50% | +50 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Kings | L 1–5 | 41% | −41 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Stars | L 0–7 | 52% | −52 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Bruins | L 2–3 | 47% | −47 | |
| Nov 17, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | L 3–4 | 52% | −52 | SO |
| Nov 20, 2025 | vs Capitals | L 4–8 | 38% | −38 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Maple Leafs | W 5–2 | 80% | +20 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Mammoth | W 4–3 | 37% | +63 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–1 | 41% | +59 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Avalanche | L 2–7 | 25% | −25 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | vs Senators | L 2–5 | 27% | −27 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | vs Jets | W 3–2 | 62% | +38 | SO |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | W 2–1 | 70% | +30 | SO |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Blues | L 3–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Lightning | L 1–6 | 58% | −58 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Penguins | W 4–2 | 47% | +53 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Rangers | L 4–5 | 32% | −32 | OT |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Oilers | W 4–1 | 54% | +46 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Flyers | L 1–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | W 4–1 | 72% | +29 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Penguins | W 4–0 | 30% | +70 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Penguins | L 3–4 | 26% | −26 | SO |
| Dec 23, 2025 | @ Bruins | W 6–2 | 49% | +51 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ Lightning | L 4–5 | 65% | −65 | SO |
| Dec 30, 2025 | @ Panthers | W 3–2 | 49% | +51 | OT |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | W 7–5 | 45% | +55 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @ Blues | L 0–2 | 55% | −55 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Stars | W 4–3 | 55% | +45 | OT |
| Jan 7, 2026 | vs Flames | W 4–1 | 73% | +27 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 6–2 | 39% | +61 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Red Wings | L 0–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 6–3 | 67% | +33 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 2–3 | 44% | −44 | OT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 3–5 | 56% | −56 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @ Senators | W 6–5 | 25% | +75 | OT |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Wild | W 4–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 2–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @ Bruins | L 3–4 | 39% | −39 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 3–2 | 32% | +68 | OT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 7–3 | 43% | +57 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 4–2 | 32% | +68 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @ Wild | L 3–4 | 36% | −36 | OT |
| Feb 4, 2026 | @ Jets | W 5–1 | 25% | +75 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vs Islanders | L 3–4 | 54% | −54 | OT |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Capitals | W 6–2 | 43% | +57 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Sharks | L 5–7 | 53% | −53 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | @ Ducks | L 5–6 | 48% | −48 | SO |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Kings | W 4–3 | 23% | +77 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 3–1 | 80% | +20 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | @ Senators | W 3–2 | 51% | +49 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Sharks | L 2–4 | 53% | −53 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Ducks | L 3–4 | 47% | −47 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | vs Bruins | W 3–2 | 55% | +45 | OT |
| Mar 19, 2026 | @ Red Wings | L 1–3 | 57% | −57 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Islanders | W 7–3 | 73% | +27 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 5–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | W 2–1 | 38% | +62 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Predators | W 4–1 | 70% | +30 | |
| Mar 29, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | W 3–1 | 39% | +61 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @ Lightning | W 4–1 | 35% | +65 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 3–2 | 44% | +56 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @ Devils | W 4–3 | 53% | +47 | SO |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs Devils | L 0–3 | 36% | −36 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 4–3 | 48% | +52 | SO |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 2–1 | 71% | +29 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Blue Jackets | L 2–5 | 29% | −29 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @ Islanders | W 4–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Apr 14, 2026 | @ Flyers | L 2–4 | 64% | −64 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @ Lightning | W 4–3 | 55% | +45 | OT |
| Apr 21, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 2–3 | 57% | −57 | OT |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 3–2 | 54% | +46 | OT |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 2–3 | 39% | −39 | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | @ Lightning | W 3–2 | 55% | +45 | |
| May 1, 2026 | vs Lightning | L 0–1 | 43% | −43 | OT |
| May 3, 2026 | @ Lightning | W 2–1 | 25% | +75 | |
| May 6, 2026 | @ Sabres | L 2–4 | 37% | −37 | |
| May 8, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 5–1 | 69% | +31 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Sabres | W 6–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| May 12, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 2–3 | 52% | −52 | |
| May 14, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 6–3 | 58% | +42 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vs Sabres | L 3–8 | 19% | −19 | |
| May 18, 2026 | @ Sabres | W 3–2 | 36% | +64 | OT |
| May 22, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | W 6–2 | 46% | +54 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 33% | −33 | OT |
| May 26, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 21% | −21 | OT |
| May 28, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 0–4 | 7% | −7 | |
| May 30, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 1–6 | 32% | −32 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Canadiens’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Goaltending | +13.2 |
| Shooting | +12.1 |
| Overtime | +5.1 |
| Shootout | −1.0 |
| Empty-net goals | −8.6 |