luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Conference finals 2025-26 · May 30, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Hurricanes, Game 5, conference finals 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Canadiens 6–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 10:43 left): Taylor Hall scored on a snap shot from 6 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Montreal Canadiens 1
Carolina Hurricanes 6

May 30, 2026 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +32 Hurricanes lucky · −32 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Hurricanes win 7.

  1. 1 MTL 3 CAR 0
  2. 2 MTL 4 CAR 2
  3. 3 MTL 4 CAR 3
  4. 4 MTL 2 CAR 3
  5. 5 MTL 1 CAR 2
  6. 6 MTL 5 CAR 7
  7. 7 MTL 1 CAR 4
  8. 8 MTL 4 CAR 7
  9. 9 MTL 2 CAR 6
  10. 10 MTL 0 CAR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canadiens win 32% of them, Hurricanes 68%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+9.5%
Canadiens by 26.6%
Canadiens by 115.5%
Hurricanes by 119.4%
Hurricanes by 211.6%
Hurricanes by 3+37.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 5, without the luck Hurricanes by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3512.51−1.51
Hurricanes4053.48+1.52

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:32 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 10:43 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CAR
P1 7:01 Interference goalkeeper on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 19:14 Holding on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CAR
P2 16:19 High sticking on the Hurricanes (Alexander Nikishin): 2 minutes on the power play +1% MTL
P2 9:04 High sticking on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CAR
P2 3:35 Too many men on the ice on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CAR
P3 12:48 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Nikolaj Ehlers): 2 minutes on the power play 0% MTL
P3 10:17 Slashing on the Hurricanes (Shayne Gostisbehere): 2 minutes on the power play 0% MTL
P3 2:37 Too many men on the ice on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CAR

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:32 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
2 P1 15:36 Alex Newhook missed the net with a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 26% chance +4% CAR –
3 P1 10:44 Logan Stankoven’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +3% MTL –
4 P1 10:43 Taylor Hall scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 26% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +16% CAR –
5 P1 7:01 Interference goalkeeper on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
6 P1 4:48 Logan Stankoven scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 5% chance +13% CAR –
7 P1 3:45 Nick Suzuki’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +3% CAR –
8 P1 3:08 Eric Robinson scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 18% chance +7% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 3% · Hurricanes 97%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 5
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 32% · Hurricanes 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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