luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Conference finals 2025-26 · May 23, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Hurricanes, Game 2, conference finals 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Canadiens 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Canadiens had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 9 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (OT): the Hurricanes won in overtime, worth 48 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final (OT)

Montreal Canadiens 2
Carolina Hurricanes 3

May 23, 2026 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +33 Hurricanes lucky · −33 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Hurricanes win 7.

  1. 1 MTL 3 CAR 1
  2. 2 MTL 3 CAR 2
  3. 3 MTL 5 CAR 4
  4. 4 MTL 2 CAR 3
  5. 5 MTL 1 CAR 2
  6. 6 MTL 2 CAR 4
  7. 7 MTL 1 CAR 3
  8. 8 MTL 0 CAR 3
  9. 9 MTL 0 CAR 3
  10. 10 MTL 1 CAR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canadiens win 33% of them, Hurricanes 67%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+6.1%
Canadiens by 26.2%
Canadiens by 120.3%
Hurricanes by 122.8%
Hurricanes by 212.7%
Hurricanes by 3+31.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens1821.47+0.53
Hurricanes4522.58−0.58

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:27 Interference on the Hurricanes (Logan Stankoven): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P1 3:24 Roughing on the Canadiens (Jayden Struble): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 1:44 Boarding on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 8:52 Interference on the Canadiens (Jakub Dobes): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P2 0:00 Slashing on the Canadiens (Alexandre Texier): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:27 Eric Robinson scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% CAR –
2 P1 8:49 Josh Anderson scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% MTL –
3 P2 8:52 Interference on the Canadiens (Jakub Dobes): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CAR –
4 P2 2:57 Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 13% chance +21% CAR –
5 P3 7:10 Alexandre Carrier’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +6% CAR –
6 P3 7:09 Josh Anderson scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 21% chance +28% MTL –
7 P3 4:03 Jordan Staal missed the net with a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance +5% MTL –
8 OT The Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +48% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 30% · Hurricanes 70%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 33% · Hurricanes 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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