luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Conference finals 2025-26 · May 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Canadiens, Game 4, conference finals 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Canadiens 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Hurricanes win 9 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 5:01 left): Sebastian Aho scored on a snap shot from 37 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 4
Montreal Canadiens 0

May 28, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +7 Hurricanes about even · −7 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 9, Canadiens win 1.

  1. 1 CAR 8 MTL 0
  2. 2 CAR 6 MTL 0
  3. 3 CAR 6 MTL 0
  4. 4 CAR 6 MTL 1
  5. 5 CAR 5 MTL 1
  6. 6 CAR 7 MTL 3
  7. 7 CAR 3 MTL 0
  8. 8 CAR 3 MTL 1
  9. 9 CAR 4 MTL 3
  10. 10 CAR 1 MTL 2

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Hurricanes win 93% of them, Canadiens 7%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+76.5%
Hurricanes by 27.3%
Hurricanes by 18.7%
Canadiens by 15.2%
Canadiens by 21.5%
Canadiens by 3+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Hurricanes by 4, without the luck Hurricanes by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes6934.99−1.99
Canadiens2401.07−1.07

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:06 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Kirby Dach): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 9:54 Interference on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 7:12 Cross checking on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 5:42 Hooking on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 7:36 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Mike Matheson): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CAR
P2 7:20 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Phillip Danault): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CAR
P2 1:52 Roughing on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CAR
P3 5:26 Interference on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% CAR

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:06 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Kirby Dach): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CAR –
2 P1 9:54 Interference on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
3 P1 7:12 Cross checking on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
4 P1 5:42 Hooking on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CAR –
5 P1 5:01 Sebastian Aho scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +17% CAR –
6 P1 3:53 Jordan Staal scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% CAR –
7 P1 2:45 Logan Stankoven’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +3% MTL –
8 P1 2:14 Logan Stankoven scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 14% chance +9% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 100% · Canadiens 0%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 4
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 93% · Canadiens 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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