Golden Knights lucky 4 
Avalanche unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Golden Knights win 28% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · May 21, 2026 – May 30, 2026
Conference finals 2025-26: who deserved to win
1 of 9 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Golden Knights beat the Avalanche 4–2 in a game they win 28% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Golden Knights lucky 4 Avalanche unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Golden Knights win 28% of replays Avalanche 3 Golden Knights 5 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 43% of replays 
Canadiens 6 
Hurricanes 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 46% of replays Golden Knights 3 Avalanche 1 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 52% of replays Canadiens 2 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 67% of replays Canadiens 1 Hurricanes 6 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 68% of replays Avalanche 1 Golden Knights 2 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 72% of replays Hurricanes 3 Canadiens 2 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 79% of replays Hurricanes 4 Canadiens 0 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 93% of replays Conference finals luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.