Hurricanes 5 
Golden Knights 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 43% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Jun 3, 2026 – Jun 15, 2026
Stanley Cup Final 2025-26: who deserved to win
Every winner of the week was ahead in the replays too.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Hurricanes 5 Golden Knights 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 43% of replays Golden Knights 2 Hurricanes 4 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 43% of replays Hurricanes 3 Golden Knights 0 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 45% of replays Hurricanes 4 Golden Knights 5 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 51% of replays Golden Knights 3 Hurricanes 4 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 53% of replays Golden Knights 5 Hurricanes 4 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 63% of replays Stanley Cup Final luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes | W 5–3 @ Golden Knights Jun 10, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 2 | Hurricanes | W 4–2 vs Golden Knights Jun 12, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 3 | Hurricanes | W 3–0 @ Golden Knights Jun 15, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 4 | Golden Knights | W 5–4 OT vs Hurricanes Jun 7, 2026 | 51% | +49 |
| 5 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 OT vs Golden Knights Jun 5, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 6 | Golden Knights | W 5–4 @ Hurricanes Jun 3, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 7 | Hurricanes | L 4–5 vs Golden Knights Jun 3, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 8 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 OT @ Hurricanes Jun 5, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 9 | Hurricanes | L 4–5 OT @ Golden Knights Jun 7, 2026 | 49% | −49 |
| 10 | Golden Knights | L 0–3 vs Hurricanes Jun 15, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 11 | Golden Knights | L 2–4 @ Hurricanes Jun 12, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 12 | Golden Knights | L 3–5 vs Hurricanes Jun 10, 2026 | 57% | −57 |