luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

Stanley Cup Final 2025-26 · June 15, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Golden Knights, Game 6, Stanley Cup Final 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Golden Knights 3–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Hurricanes win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

The biggest swing (P1, 16:13 left): Taylor Hall scored on a wrist shot from 27 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 3
Vegas Golden Knights 0

June 15, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena

Luck index +55 Hurricanes lucky · −55 Golden Knights

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 5, Golden Knights win 5.

  1. 1 CAR 4 VGK 1
  2. 2 CAR 3 VGK 1
  3. 3 CAR 1 VGK 0
  4. 4 CAR 1 VGK 0
  5. 5 CAR 2 VGK 1
  6. 6 CAR 3 VGK 4
  7. 7 CAR 2 VGK 3
  8. 8 CAR 1 VGK 3
  9. 9 CAR 2 VGK 5
  10. 10 CAR 1 VGK 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Hurricanes win 45% of them, Golden Knights 55%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+12.8%
Hurricanes by 29.3%
Hurricanes by 123.2%
Golden Knights by 121.4%
Golden Knights by 211.2%
Golden Knights by 3+22.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 3, without the luck Hurricanes by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes3522.06−0.06
Golden Knights3703.02−3.02

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 9:34 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P1 9:03 Delaying game face off violation on the Golden Knights (Tomas Hertl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 3:48 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 1:22 Cross checking on the Hurricanes (Logan Stankoven): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VGK
P2 2:56 Interference on the Golden Knights (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CAR
P3 11:11 High sticking on the Hurricanes (Eric Robinson): 2 minutes on the power play +2% VGK

When it happened

Golden Knights’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Golden Knights were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:13 Taylor Hall scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% CAR –
2 P1 9:34 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VGK –
3 P1 9:03 Delaying game face off violation on the Golden Knights (Tomas Hertl): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CAR –
4 P1 3:48 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Jack Eichel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CAR –
5 P1 1:22 Cross checking on the Hurricanes (Logan Stankoven): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VGK –
6 P1 0:45 Mark Stone’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +4% CAR –
7 P1 0:44 Mark Stone’s bat shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +4% CAR –
8 P2 6:29 Jackson Blake scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 63% · Golden Knights 37%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 3
Luck in goals
2.5 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 45% · Golden Knights 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All stanley cup final 2025-26 games · Hurricanes · Golden Knights

More from stanley cup final, 2025-26

Every game of stanley cup final, 2025-26