luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 13, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Capitals, Jan 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Canadiens 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Capitals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The biggest swing (OT): the Capitals won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final (OT)

Montreal Canadiens 2
Washington Capitals 3

January 13, 2026 · Capital One Arena

Luck index +44 Capitals lucky · −44 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 4, Capitals win 6.

  1. 1 MTL 5 WSH 1
  2. 2 MTL 5 WSH 2
  3. 3 MTL 2 WSH 1
  4. 4 MTL 3 WSH 2
  5. 5 MTL 4 WSH 5
  6. 6 MTL 0 WSH 1
  7. 7 MTL 3 WSH 5
  8. 8 MTL 0 WSH 3
  9. 9 MTL 1 WSH 4
  10. 10 MTL 1 WSH 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Canadiens win 44% of them, Capitals 56%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+16.0%
Canadiens by 28.0%
Canadiens by 119.9%
Capitals by 120.6%
Capitals by 211.2%
Capitals by 3+24.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 1, without the luck Capitals by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3422.54−0.54
Capitals4223.48−1.48

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:01 Tripping on the Capitals (Martin Fehérváry): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 12:05 Hooking on the Canadiens (Joe Veleno): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 11:57 Instigator on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WSH
P2 8:46 Tripping on the Canadiens (Cole Caufield): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WSH
P2 2:29 Slashing on the Capitals (Dylan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P2 1:33 High sticking on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P3 9:36 Tripping on the Canadiens (Sammy Blais): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P3 6:18 Holding on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play +6% MTL
OT 3:06 Tripping on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power play +12% WSH

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:46 Josh Anderson scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 6% chance +16% MTL –
2 P2 12:20 Brendan Gallagher scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% MTL –
3 P3 14:54 Ethen Frank scored on a deflected shot from 16 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% WSH –
4 P3 7:59 Brett Leason’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +8% MTL –
5 P3 6:18 Holding on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% MTL –
6 P3 1:54 Ethen Frank scored on a tip from 18 feetShooting · 9% chance +40% WSH –
7 OT The Capitals won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% WSH –
8 OT 3:06 Tripping on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 35% · Capitals 65%

Final margin
Capitals by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 44% · Capitals 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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