2025-26 NHL season · Jan 12, 2026 – Jan 18, 2026

NHL week 15: who deserved to win

10 of 54 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Islanders beat the Oilers 1–0 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 54 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Islanders lucky 1

Oilers unlucky 0 Long shot · Islanders win 19% of replays

Canadiens lucky 6

Senators unlucky 5 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 25% of replays

Lightning unlucky 2

Blues lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Blues win 29% of replays

Maple Leafs lucky 4

Jets unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Maple Leafs win 33% of replays

Blue Jackets lucky 4

Penguins unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 34% of replays

Maple Leafs lucky 4

Avalanche unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Maple Leafs win 34% of replays

Kraken unlucky 2

Bruins lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 35% of replays

Ducks lucky 3

Kings unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Ducks win 36% of replays

Hurricanes unlucky 3

Red Wings lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 37% of replays

Golden Knights lucky 3

Kings unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Golden Knights win 39% of replays

Predators 7

Avalanche 3 Coin flip · Predators win 43% of replays

Islanders 2

Flames 4 Coin flip · Flames win 43% of replays

Canadiens 3

Sabres 5 Coin flip · Sabres win 44% of replays

Oilers 3

Predators 4 Coin flip · Predators win 44% of replays

Stars 3

Kings 1 Coin flip · Stars win 46% of replays

Flames 3

Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Flames win 47% of replays

Lightning 2

Penguins 1 Coin flip · Lightning win 49% of replays

Maple Leafs 5

Golden Knights 6 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 50% of replays

Kraken 2

Devils 3 Coin flip · Devils win 50% of replays

Devils 5

Wild 2 Coin flip · Devils win 52% of replays

Blues 0

Oilers 5 Coin flip · Oilers win 52% of replays

Hurricanes 0

Blues 3 Coin flip · Blues win 52% of replays

Jets 6

Wild 2 Coin flip · Jets win 53% of replays

Lightning 4

Stars 1 Coin flip · Lightning win 53% of replays

Kings 1

Ducks 2 Coin flip · Ducks win 54% of replays

Panthers 4

Sabres 3 Coin flip · Panthers win 55% of replays

Canadiens 2

Capitals 3 Coin flip · Capitals win 56% of replays

Stars 1

Ducks 3 Coin flip · Ducks win 57% of replays

Sharks 2

Red Wings 4 Coin flip · Red Wings win 57% of replays

Kraken 3

Mammoth 6 Coin flip · Mammoth win 57% of replays

Flyers 3

Penguins 6 Coin flip · Penguins win 57% of replays

Oilers 4

Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Oilers win 57% of replays

Flyers 2

Sabres 5 Coin flip · Sabres win 58% of replays

Predators 2

Golden Knights 7 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 58% of replays

Flames 3

Blue Jackets 5 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 58% of replays

Stars 1

Mammoth 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 59% of replays

Sharks 3

Capitals 2 Coin flip · Sharks win 59% of replays

Islanders 4

Jets 5 Coin flip · Jets win 60% of replays

Panthers 5

Capitals 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 60% of replays

Hurricanes 4

Devils 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 61% of replays

Canucks 1

Senators 2 Replays agree · Senators win 62% of replays

Rangers 6

Flyers 3 Replays agree · Rangers win 66% of replays

Red Wings 0

Bruins 3 Replays agree · Bruins win 67% of replays

Canucks 3

Canadiens 6 Replays agree · Canadiens win 67% of replays

Wild 5

Sabres 4 Replays agree · Wild win 67% of replays

Bruins 5

Blackhawks 2 Replays agree · Bruins win 68% of replays

Senators 8

Rangers 4 Replays agree · Senators win 69% of replays

Canucks 1

Blue Jackets 4 Replays agree · Blue Jackets win 71% of replays

Senators 3

Red Wings 4 Replays agree · Red Wings win 71% of replays

Kraken 4

Rangers 2 Replays agree · Kraken win 72% of replays

Lightning 5

Flyers 1 Replays agree · Lightning win 74% of replays

Oilers 6

Canucks 0 Replays agree · Oilers win 77% of replays

Maple Leafs 1

Mammoth 6 Replays agree · Mammoth win 79% of replays

Panthers 1

Hurricanes 9 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 83% of replays

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#	Team	Game	Wins the replay	Luck index
1	Islanders	W 1–0 @ Oilers Jan 15, 2026	19%	+81
2	Canadiens	W 6–5 OT @ Senators Jan 17, 2026	25%	+75
3	Blues	W 3–2 SO vs Lightning Jan 16, 2026	29%	+71
4	Maple Leafs	W 4–3 OT @ Jets Jan 17, 2026	33%	+67
5	Blue Jackets	W 4–3 SO @ Penguins Jan 17, 2026	34%	+66
6	Maple Leafs	W 4–3 OT @ Avalanche Jan 12, 2026	34%	+66
7	Bruins	W 4–2 vs Kraken Jan 15, 2026	35%	+65
8	Ducks	W 3–2 SO @ Kings Jan 16, 2026	36%	+64
9	Red Wings	W 4–3 OT vs Hurricanes Jan 12, 2026	37%	+63
10	Golden Knights	W 3–2 OT @ Kings Jan 14, 2026	39%	+61
11	Predators	W 7–3 @ Avalanche Jan 16, 2026	43%	+57
12	Flames	W 4–2 vs Islanders Jan 17, 2026	43%	+57
13	Sabres	W 5–3 vs Canadiens Jan 15, 2026	44%	+56
14	Predators	W 4–3 OT vs Oilers Jan 13, 2026	44%	+56
15	Stars	W 3–1 @ Kings Jan 12, 2026	46%	+54
16	Flames	W 3–1 @ Blackhawks Jan 15, 2026	47%	+53
17	Lightning	W 2–1 SO @ Penguins Jan 13, 2026	49%	+51
18	Golden Knights	W 6–5 OT vs Maple Leafs Jan 15, 2026	50%	+50
19	Devils	W 3–2 OT vs Kraken Jan 14, 2026	50%	+50
20	Devils	W 5–2 @ Wild Jan 12, 2026	52%	+48
21	Oilers	W 5–0 vs Blues Jan 18, 2026	52%	+48
22	Blues	W 3–0 vs Hurricanes Jan 13, 2026	52%	+48
23	Jets	W 6–2 @ Wild Jan 15, 2026	53%	+47
24	Lightning	W 4–1 @ Stars Jan 18, 2026	53%	+47
25	Ducks	W 2–1 OT vs Kings Jan 17, 2026	54%	+46
26	Panthers	W 4–3 @ Sabres Jan 12, 2026	55%	+45
27	Capitals	W 3–2 OT vs Canadiens Jan 13, 2026	56%	+44
28	Ducks	W 3–1 vs Stars Jan 13, 2026	57%	+43
29	Red Wings	W 4–2 vs Sharks Jan 16, 2026	57%	+43
30	Mammoth	W 6–3 vs Kraken Jan 17, 2026	57%	+43
31	Penguins	W 6–3 vs Flyers Jan 15, 2026	57%	+43
32	Oilers	W 4–1 @ Blackhawks Jan 12, 2026	57%	+43
33	Sabres	W 5–2 vs Flyers Jan 14, 2026	58%	+42
34	Golden Knights	W 7–2 vs Predators Jan 17, 2026	58%	+42
35	Blue Jackets	W 5–3 vs Flames Jan 13, 2026	58%	+42
36	Mammoth	W 2–1 vs Stars Jan 15, 2026	59%	+41
37	Sharks	W 3–2 @ Capitals Jan 15, 2026	59%	+41
38	Jets	W 5–4 vs Islanders Jan 13, 2026	60%	+40
39	Panthers	W 5–2 @ Capitals Jan 17, 2026	60%	+40
40	Hurricanes	W 4–1 @ Devils Jan 17, 2026	61%	+39
41	Senators	W 2–1 vs Canucks Jan 13, 2026	62%	+38
42	Rangers	W 6–3 @ Flyers Jan 17, 2026	66%	+34
43	Bruins	W 3–0 vs Red Wings Jan 13, 2026	67%	+33
44	Canadiens	W 6–3 vs Canucks Jan 12, 2026	67%	+33
45	Wild	W 5–4 OT @ Sabres Jan 17, 2026	67%	+33
46	Bruins	W 5–2 @ Blackhawks Jan 17, 2026	68%	+32
47	Senators	W 8–4 @ Rangers Jan 14, 2026	69%	+31
48	Blue Jackets	W 4–1 vs Canucks Jan 15, 2026	71%	+29
49	Red Wings	W 4–3 OT vs Senators Jan 18, 2026	71%	+29
50	Kraken	W 4–2 @ Rangers Jan 12, 2026	72%	+28
51	Lightning	W 5–1 @ Flyers Jan 12, 2026	74%	+26
52	Oilers	W 6–0 @ Canucks Jan 17, 2026	77%	+23
53	Mammoth	W 6–1 vs Maple Leafs Jan 13, 2026	79%	+21
54	Hurricanes	W 9–1 vs Panthers Jan 16, 2026	83%	+17
55	Panthers	L 1–9 @ Hurricanes Jan 16, 2026	17%	−17
56	Maple Leafs	L 1–6 @ Mammoth Jan 13, 2026	21%	−21
57	Canucks	L 0–6 vs Oilers Jan 17, 2026	23%	−23
58	Flyers	L 1–5 vs Lightning Jan 12, 2026	26%	−26
59	Rangers	L 2–4 vs Kraken Jan 12, 2026	28%	−28
60	Senators	L 3–4 OT @ Red Wings Jan 18, 2026	29%	−29
61	Canucks	L 1–4 @ Blue Jackets Jan 15, 2026	29%	−29
62	Rangers	L 4–8 vs Senators Jan 14, 2026	31%	−31
63	Blackhawks	L 2–5 vs Bruins Jan 17, 2026	32%	−32
64	Sabres	L 4–5 OT vs Wild Jan 17, 2026	33%	−33
65	Canucks	L 3–6 @ Canadiens Jan 12, 2026	33%	−33
66	Red Wings	L 0–3 @ Bruins Jan 13, 2026	33%	−33
67	Flyers	L 3–6 vs Rangers Jan 17, 2026	34%	−34
68	Canucks	L 1–2 @ Senators Jan 13, 2026	38%	−38
69	Devils	L 1–4 vs Hurricanes Jan 17, 2026	39%	−39
70	Capitals	L 2–5 vs Panthers Jan 17, 2026	40%	−40
71	Islanders	L 4–5 @ Jets Jan 13, 2026	40%	−40
72	Capitals	L 2–3 vs Sharks Jan 15, 2026	41%	−41
73	Stars	L 1–2 @ Mammoth Jan 15, 2026	41%	−41
74	Flames	L 3–5 @ Blue Jackets Jan 13, 2026	42%	−42
75	Predators	L 2–7 @ Golden Knights Jan 17, 2026	42%	−42
76	Flyers	L 2–5 @ Sabres Jan 14, 2026	42%	−42
77	Blackhawks	L 1–4 vs Oilers Jan 12, 2026	43%	−43
78	Flyers	L 3–6 @ Penguins Jan 15, 2026	43%	−43
79	Kraken	L 3–6 @ Mammoth Jan 17, 2026	43%	−43
80	Sharks	L 2–4 @ Red Wings Jan 16, 2026	43%	−43
81	Stars	L 1–3 @ Ducks Jan 13, 2026	43%	−43
82	Canadiens	L 2–3 OT @ Capitals Jan 13, 2026	44%	−44
83	Sabres	L 3–4 vs Panthers Jan 12, 2026	45%	−45
84	Kings	L 1–2 OT @ Ducks Jan 17, 2026	46%	−46
85	Stars	L 1–4 vs Lightning Jan 18, 2026	47%	−47
86	Wild	L 2–6 vs Jets Jan 15, 2026	47%	−47
87	Hurricanes	L 0–3 @ Blues Jan 13, 2026	48%	−48
88	Blues	L 0–5 @ Oilers Jan 18, 2026	48%	−48
89	Wild	L 2–5 vs Devils Jan 12, 2026	48%	−48
90	Kraken	L 2–3 OT @ Devils Jan 14, 2026	50%	−50
91	Maple Leafs	L 5–6 OT @ Golden Knights Jan 15, 2026	50%	−50
92	Penguins	L 1–2 SO vs Lightning Jan 13, 2026	51%	−51
93	Blackhawks	L 1–3 vs Flames Jan 15, 2026	53%	−53
94	Kings	L 1–3 vs Stars Jan 12, 2026	54%	−54
95	Oilers	L 3–4 OT @ Predators Jan 13, 2026	56%	−56
96	Canadiens	L 3–5 @ Sabres Jan 15, 2026	56%	−56
97	Islanders	L 2–4 @ Flames Jan 17, 2026	57%	−57
98	Avalanche	L 3–7 vs Predators Jan 16, 2026	57%	−57
99	Kings	L 2–3 OT vs Golden Knights Jan 14, 2026	61%	−61
100	Hurricanes	L 3–4 OT @ Red Wings Jan 12, 2026	63%	−63
101	Kings	L 2–3 SO vs Ducks Jan 16, 2026	64%	−64
102	Kraken	L 2–4 @ Bruins Jan 15, 2026	65%	−65
103	Avalanche	L 3–4 OT vs Maple Leafs Jan 12, 2026	66%	−66
104	Penguins	L 3–4 SO vs Blue Jackets Jan 17, 2026	66%	−66
105	Jets	L 3–4 OT vs Maple Leafs Jan 17, 2026	67%	−67
106	Lightning	L 2–3 SO @ Blues Jan 16, 2026	71%	−71
107	Senators	L 5–6 OT vs Canadiens Jan 17, 2026	75%	−75
108	Oilers	L 0–1 vs Islanders Jan 15, 2026	81%	−81