luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 12, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Rangers, Jan 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Rangers 4–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Rangers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 13 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P2, 15:33 left): Jordan Eberle scored on a snap shot from 34 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Seattle Kraken 4
New York Rangers 2

January 12, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +28 Kraken lucky · −28 Rangers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 7, Rangers win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 7 NYR 1
  2. 2 SEA 6 NYR 2
  3. 3 SEA 5 NYR 2
  4. 4 SEA 5 NYR 2
  5. 5 SEA 4 NYR 2
  6. 6 SEA 5 NYR 4
  7. 7 SEA 2 NYR 1
  8. 8 SEA 1 NYR 2
  9. 9 SEA 3 NYR 4
  10. 10 SEA 0 NYR 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kraken win 72% of them, Rangers 28%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+41.5%
Kraken by 213.4%
Kraken by 117.3%
Rangers by 117.4%
Rangers by 25.5%
Rangers by 3+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 2, without the luck Kraken by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken3933.41−0.41
Rangers3821.95+0.05

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:24 Slashing on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 7:07 Interference on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P3 14:39 Tripping on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power play +7% SEA
P3 7:32 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NYR

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:52 Mika Zibanejad scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% NYR –
2 P1 14:29 Sam Carrick scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance +12% NYR –
3 P2 19:00 Eeli Tolvanen scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +12% SEA –
4 P2 15:33 Jordan Eberle scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% SEA –
5 P2 7:07 Interference on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NYR –
6 P3 14:39 Tripping on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% SEA –
7 P3 7:32 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NYR –
8 P3 0:28 J.T. Miller’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +15% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 84% · Rangers 16%

Final margin
Kraken by 2
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 72% · Rangers 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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