luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 15, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Oilers, Jan 15, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Oilers 1–0, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Oilers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 87 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The biggest swing (P3, 6:18 left): Anthony Duclair scored on a snap shot from 19 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final

New York Islanders 1
Edmonton Oilers 0

January 15, 2026 · Rogers Place

Luck index +81 Islanders very lucky · −81 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 2, Oilers win 8.

  1. 1 NYI 6 EDM 4
  2. 2 NYI 4 EDM 3
  3. 3 NYI 3 EDM 4
  4. 4 NYI 3 EDM 5
  5. 5 NYI 1 EDM 4
  6. 6 NYI 1 EDM 4
  7. 7 NYI 0 EDM 4
  8. 8 NYI 2 EDM 7
  9. 9 NYI 1 EDM 7
  10. 10 NYI 0 EDM 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Islanders win 19% of them, Oilers 81%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+3.2%
Islanders by 23.4%
Islanders by 112.5%
Oilers by 112.4%
Oilers by 210.0%
Oilers by 3+58.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Oilers by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders2811.92−0.92
Oilers5905.05−5.05

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 1:18 Slashing on the Islanders (Adam Pelech): 2 minutes on the power play +6% EDM
P3 17:47 Tripping on the Islanders (Emil Heineman): 2 minutes on the power play +6% EDM
P3 8:00 Tripping on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power play +8% NYI

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:14 Curtis Lazar missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 31% chance +5% NYI –
2 P2 1:18 Slashing on the Islanders (Adam Pelech): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% EDM –
3 P2 0:18 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins missed the net with a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 21% chance +5% NYI –
4 P3 17:47 Tripping on the Islanders (Emil Heineman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% EDM –
5 P3 8:00 Tripping on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% NYI –
6 P3 6:18 Anthony Duclair scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 25% chance +28% NYI –
7 P3 3:15 Jack Roslovic missed the net with a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 14% chance +6% NYI –
8 P3 0:36 Leon Draisaitl hit the left post with a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 13% chance +6% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 43% · Oilers 57%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 19% · Oilers 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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