luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 15, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Golden Knights, Jan 15, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Golden Knights beat the Maple Leafs 6–5, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Golden Knights win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

The biggest swing (OT): the Golden Knights won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.

Final (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Vegas Golden Knights 6

January 15, 2026 · T-Mobile Arena

Luck index +50 Golden Knights lucky · −50 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Golden Knights win 5.

  1. 1 TOR 5 VGK 2
  2. 2 TOR 3 VGK 0
  3. 3 TOR 3 VGK 1
  4. 4 TOR 1 VGK 0
  5. 5 TOR 2 VGK 1
  6. 6 TOR 1 VGK 2
  7. 7 TOR 1 VGK 2
  8. 8 TOR 1 VGK 3
  9. 9 TOR 1 VGK 3
  10. 10 TOR 0 VGK 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 50% of them, Golden Knights 50%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+15.8%
Maple Leafs by 211.0%
Maple Leafs by 123.6%
Golden Knights by 124.1%
Golden Knights by 210.8%
Golden Knights by 3+14.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Golden Knights: the final margin was Golden Knights by 1, without the luck Golden Knights by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs3852.19+2.81
Golden Knights4652.47+2.53

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:24 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VGK
P2 19:12 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VGK
P2 8:24 Hooking on the Golden Knights (Tomas Hertl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P3 17:57 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VGK

When it happened

Golden Knights’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Golden Knights were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:55 Morgan Rielly scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% TOR –
2 P1 14:57 William Nylander scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 9% chance +13% TOR –
3 P1 11:48 Pavel Dorofeyev scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% VGK –
4 P1 10:03 Auston Matthews scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% TOR –
5 P2 7:14 John Tavares scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% TOR –
6 P3 17:50 Pavel Dorofeyev scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% VGK –
7 P3 0:07 Tomas Hertl scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 15% chance +42% VGK –
8 OT The Golden Knights won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% VGK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 46% · Golden Knights 54%

Final margin
Golden Knights by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Golden Knights
Luck-adjusted margin
Golden Knights by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 50% · Golden Knights 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 15 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Golden Knights

More from week 15, 2025-26

Every game of week 15, 2025-26