luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 17, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Senators, Jan 17, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Senators 6–5, but the replays lean toward the Senators: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Canadiens won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final (OT)

Montreal Canadiens 6
Ottawa Senators 5

January 17, 2026 · Canadian Tire Centre

Luck index +75 Canadiens very lucky · −75 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 3, Senators win 7.

  1. 1 MTL 6 OTT 3
  2. 2 MTL 2 OTT 1
  3. 3 MTL 5 OTT 4
  4. 4 MTL 3 OTT 4
  5. 5 MTL 2 OTT 3
  6. 6 MTL 2 OTT 5
  7. 7 MTL 1 OTT 4
  8. 8 MTL 3 OTT 7
  9. 9 MTL 1 OTT 6
  10. 10 MTL 1 OTT 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canadiens win 25% of them, Senators 75%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+5.3%
Canadiens by 24.9%
Canadiens by 115.0%
Senators by 116.8%
Senators by 210.8%
Senators by 3+47.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 1, without the luck Senators by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3052.13+2.87
Senators4754.27+0.73

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:28 Tripping on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 3:28 Holding on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 0:35 High sticking on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P1 0:00 Tripping on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P2 9:48 High sticking on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 7:21 Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MTL
P2 6:26 Tripping on the Canadiens (Ivan Demidov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 14:12 Roughing on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MTL

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:54 Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% MTL –
2 P1 2:10 Cole Caufield scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% MTL –
3 P2 19:18 Brady Tkachuk scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% OTT –
4 P2 16:53 Tim Stützle scored on a between-the-legs shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance +17% OTT –
5 P2 15:34 Josh Anderson scored on a wrist shot from 59 feetShooting · 1% chance +20% MTL –
6 P2 4:29 Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 9% chance +21% OTT –
7 P3 3:19 Alexandre Carrier scored on a slap shot from 48 feetShooting · 3% chance +39% MTL –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Canadiens won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 18% · Senators 82%

Final margin
Canadiens by 1
Luck in goals
2.6 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 25% · Senators 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 15 2025-26 games · Canadiens · Senators

More from week 15, 2025-26

Every game of week 15, 2025-26