Were the Senators lucky in 2025-26?

About as lucky as the average team: −0.7 points against what their play was worth, the 8th-unluckiest of 32.

Where did the Senators’ luck come from?

Shooting +16.5 goals, Empty-net goals +11.0 goals, Shootout +2.0 goals, Overtime −6.9 goals, Goaltending −25.6 goals.

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference

Ottawa Senators

The Senators went 44–27–11 (99 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 99.7 points. Luck cost 0.7: the 8th-unluckiest of 32. PDO 0.993; 54.6% of the expected goals in their games.

Atlantic Division, 2025-26

#	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Without luck
1	Sabres	82	50–23–9	109	95.4	3rd
2	Lightning	82	50–26–6	106	105.1	1st
3	Canadiens	82	48–24–10	106	87.8	4th
4	Bruins	82	45–27–10	100	81.1	7th
5	Senators	82	44–27–11	99	99.7	2nd
6	Red Wings	82	41–31–10	92	84.8	6th
7	Panthers	82	40–38–4	84	85.3	5th
8	Maple Leafs	82	32–36–14	78	71.4	8th

Every division, adjusted for luck

Where the luck came from, 2025-26

Shooting +16.5

Empty-net goals +11.0

Shootout +2.0

Overtime −6.9

Goaltending −25.6

Goals of margin luck added (right) or cost (left) over the season, each kind at its fitted luck share; overtime and shootout wins count two.

Season by season

Season	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Luck
2025-26	44–27–11	99	99.7	−0.7

Luckiest wins

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Nov 26, 2025	@ Golden Knights	W 4–3	29%	+71
Apr 11, 2026	@ Islanders	W 3–0	32%	+68
Oct 16, 2025	vs Kraken	W 4–3	36%	+64
Nov 13, 2025	vs Bruins	W 5–3	40%	+60
Jan 20, 2026	@ Blue Jackets	W 4–1	47%	+53

Unluckiest losses

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Jan 17, 2026	vs Canadiens	L 5–6	75%	−75
Dec 6, 2025	vs Blues	L 1–2	71%	−71
Dec 23, 2025	vs Sabres	L 2–3	71%	−71
Feb 26, 2026	vs Red Wings	L 1–2	69%	−69
Jan 5, 2026	vs Red Wings	L 3–5	69%	−69

Division rivals

Bruins · Sabres · Red Wings · Panthers · Canadiens · Lightning · Maple Leafs

Every NHL team · 2025-26 luck rankings · How the luck is measured