luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 11, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Islanders, Apr 11, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Islanders 3–0, but the replays lean toward the Islanders: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 47 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (P1, 6:54 left): Ridly Greig scored on a backhand shot from 20 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 3
New York Islanders 0

April 11, 2026 · UBS Arena

Luck index +68 Senators very lucky · −68 Islanders

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 3, Islanders win 7.

  1. 1 OTT 3 NYI 0
  2. 2 OTT 3 NYI 2
  3. 3 OTT 5 NYI 4
  4. 4 OTT 1 NYI 2
  5. 5 OTT 3 NYI 4
  6. 6 OTT 0 NYI 2
  7. 7 OTT 1 NYI 3
  8. 8 OTT 3 NYI 6
  9. 9 OTT 1 NYI 4
  10. 10 OTT 1 NYI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Senators win 32% of them, Islanders 68%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+6.3%
Senators by 26.0%
Senators by 119.7%
Islanders by 122.3%
Islanders by 213.3%
Islanders by 3+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Senators by 3, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators2621.56+0.44
Islanders3902.87−2.87

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:55 Roughing on the Islanders (Kyle MacLean): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 8:23 Holding on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P1 2:58 Slashing on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 11:13 Interference on the Islanders (Tony DeAngelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 5:23 Holding on the Senators (Jordan Spence): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P2 0:20 Tripping on the Senators (Jordan Spence): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P3 16:44 High sticking on the Islanders (Emil Heineman): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 12:43 High sticking on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P3 8:56 Tripping on the Islanders (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play +6% OTT
P3 8:22 Tripping on the Islanders (Ryan Pulock): 2 minutes on the power play +6% OTT

When it happened

Islanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Islanders were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 6:54 Ridly Greig scored on a backhand shot from 20 feetShooting · 10% chance +16% OTT –
2 P3 18:32 Calum Ritchie’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance +8% OTT –
3 P3 16:44 High sticking on the Islanders (Emil Heineman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% OTT –
4 P3 12:43 High sticking on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NYI –
5 P3 9:21 Calum Ritchie snap, 17 ft: above crossbar (18% chance)Shooting +6% OTT –
6 P3 8:56 Tripping on the Islanders (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% OTT –
7 P3 8:22 Tripping on the Islanders (Ryan Pulock): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% OTT –
8 P3 7:24 Jake Sanderson scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 28% chance +9% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 54% · Islanders 46%

Final margin
Senators by 3
Luck in goals
3.0 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Senators 32% · Islanders 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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