luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 12, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Bruins at Blue Jackets, Apr 12, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bruins beat the Blue Jackets 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Blue Jackets: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Bruins.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 0:19 left): Henri Jokiharju scored on a wrist shot from 36 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Bruins. The biggest single swing (P3, 9:38 left): Mark Kastelic scored on a snap shot from 25 feet.

Final

Boston Bruins 3
Columbus Blue Jackets 2

April 12, 2026 · Nationwide Arena

Luck index +67 Bruins very lucky · −67 Blue Jackets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bruins win 3, Blue Jackets win 7.

  1. 1 BOS 4 CBJ 1
  2. 2 BOS 3 CBJ 2
  3. 3 BOS 3 CBJ 2
  4. 4 BOS 4 CBJ 5
  5. 5 BOS 3 CBJ 4
  6. 6 BOS 5 CBJ 7
  7. 7 BOS 4 CBJ 7
  8. 8 BOS 1 CBJ 4
  9. 9 BOS 2 CBJ 6
  10. 10 BOS 2 CBJ 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Bruins win 33% of them, Blue Jackets 67%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bruins by 3+7.4%
Bruins by 26.5%
Bruins by 118.6%
Blue Jackets by 118.5%
Blue Jackets by 211.6%
Blue Jackets by 3+37.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Bruins by 1, without the luck Blue Jackets by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Bruins3932.03+0.97
Blue Jackets5523.90−1.90

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 0:59 Hooking on the Bruins (James Hagens): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P2 11:50 Roughing on the Bruins (Andrew Peeke): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CBJ
P2 6:17 High sticking on the Bruins (Alex Steeves): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CBJ

When it happened

Blue Jackets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blue Jackets were ahead in it, below while the Bruins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:01 Mason Marchment scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% CBJ –
2 P1 9:29 Sean Kuraly scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% BOS –
3 P2 5:20 Charlie Coyle missed the net with a tip from 4 feetShooting · 28% chance +6% BOS –
4 P2 0:19 The game turned hereHenri Jokiharju scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 3% chance +25% BOS –
5 P3 18:33 Adam Fantilli scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 14% chance +23% CBJ –
6 P3 9:38 Mark Kastelic scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 4% chance +32% BOS –
7 P3 5:49 Cole Sillinger’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +7% BOS –
8 P3 4:59 Kirill Marchenko missed the net with a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 23% chance +9% BOS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bruins 22% · Blue Jackets 78%

Final margin
Bruins by 1
Luck in goals
2.2 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Blue Jackets by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Bruins 33% · Blue Jackets 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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