luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 7, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Canadiens, Apr 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Panthers 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (SO): the Canadiens won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final (SO)

Florida Panthers 3
Montreal Canadiens 4

April 7, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +52 Canadiens lucky · −52 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Canadiens win 5.

  1. 1 FLA 6 MTL 2
  2. 2 FLA 5 MTL 2
  3. 3 FLA 5 MTL 3
  4. 4 FLA 5 MTL 4
  5. 5 FLA 3 MTL 2
  6. 6 FLA 3 MTL 4
  7. 7 FLA 4 MTL 5
  8. 8 FLA 3 MTL 5
  9. 9 FLA 2 MTL 5
  10. 10 FLA 2 MTL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 52% of them, Canadiens 48%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+22.0%
Panthers by 29.7%
Panthers by 120.1%
Canadiens by 119.6%
Canadiens by 29.4%
Canadiens by 3+19.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 1, without the luck Panthers by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers4033.21−0.21
Canadiens4233.66−0.66

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:29 Holding on the Canadiens (Adam Engstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 9:13 High sticking on the Panthers (Dmitry Kulikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P1 2:02 Tripping on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 19:29 Slashing on the Panthers (Tobias Bjornfot): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 5:35 Interference on the Canadiens (Ivan Demidov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 0:12 High sticking on the Panthers (Tomas Nosek): 2 minutes on the power play +11% MTL

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:37 Carter Verhaeghe scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance +16% FLA –
2 P2 19:06 Ivan Demidov scored on a slap shot from 41 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% MTL –
3 P2 6:17 Cole Reinhardt scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 6% chance +21% FLA –
4 P3 13:38 Phillip Danault scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 3% chance +29% MTL –
5 P3 12:11 Eetu Luostarinen scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 8% chance +28% FLA –
6 P3 0:37 Nick Suzuki’s snap shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +12% FLA –
7 P3 0:21 Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 27% chance +35% MTL –
8 SO The Canadiens won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 51% · Canadiens 49%

Final margin
Canadiens by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 52% · Canadiens 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 27 2025-26 games · Panthers · Canadiens

More from week 27, 2025-26

Every game of week 27, 2025-26