2025-26 regular season · April 11, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Devils at Red Wings, Apr 11, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Devils beat the Red Wings 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Devils win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Devils.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 8:42 left): Cody Glass scored on a snap shot from 10 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Devils. The biggest single swing (P3, 3:34 left): Jesper Bratt scored on a wrist shot from 17 feet.
Final
 New Jersey Devils | 5 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Devils lucky · −45 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Devils win 5, Red Wings win 5.
- 1 NJD 7 DET 3
- 2 NJD 3 DET 0
- 3 NJD 3 DET 1
- 4 NJD 2 DET 1
- 5 NJD 3 DET 2
- 6 NJD 4 DET 5
- 7 NJD 3 DET 4
- 8 NJD 1 DET 3
- 9 NJD 2 DET 5
- 10 NJD 1 DET 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Devils win 55% of them, Red Wings 45%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Devils by 3+ | 24.8% |
| Devils by 2 | 10.6% |
| Devils by 1 | 19.4% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 21.2% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 9.1% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 14.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devils | 48 | 4 | 3.30 | +0.70 |
 Red Wings | 45 | 3 | 2.91 | +0.09 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 16:51 | Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 10:19 | Justin Faulk scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% DET | – |
| 2 | P1 9:20 | Jack Hughes scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 7% chance | +16% NJD | – |
| 3 | P2 8:01 | David Perron scored on a snap shot from 38 feetShooting · 7% chance | +20% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 4:44 | Jesper Bratt scored on a wrist shot from 52 feetShooting · 1% chance | +22% NJD | – |
| 5 | P3 13:00 | Emmitt Finnie scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance | +26% DET | – |
| 6 | P3 8:42 | The game turned hereCody Glass scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 20% chance | +26% NJD | – |
| 7 | P3 3:34 | Jesper Bratt scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance | +37% NJD | – |
| 8 | P3 2:49 | J.T. Compher’s backhand shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance | +5% NJD | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Devils 72% · Red Wings 28%
- Final margin
- Devils by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Devils
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Devils by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Devils 55% · Red Wings 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 27, 2025-26
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