luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · Apr 6, 2026 – Apr 12, 2026

NHL week 27: who deserved to win

5 of 53 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canucks beat the Ducks 4–3 (OT) in a game they win 28% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 53 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 27 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Canucks W 4–3 OT @ Ducks Apr 12, 2026 28% +72
2 Senators W 3–0 @ Islanders Apr 11, 2026 32% +68
3 Bruins W 3–2 @ Blue Jackets Apr 12, 2026 33% +67
4 Predators W 5–0 @ Ducks Apr 7, 2026 33% +67
5 Flyers W 5–1 @ Devils Apr 7, 2026 37% +63
6 Stars W 5–4 vs Wild Apr 9, 2026 40% +60
7 Flyers W 7–1 @ Jets Apr 11, 2026 41% +59
8 Devils W 4–3 OT vs Senators Apr 12, 2026 42% +58
9 Red Wings W 6–3 vs Flyers Apr 9, 2026 42% +58
10 Sabres W 5–0 vs Blue Jackets Apr 9, 2026 43% +57
11 Predators W 2–1 vs Wild Apr 11, 2026 43% +57
12 Sharks W 3–2 vs Blackhawks Apr 6, 2026 44% +56
13 Panthers W 6–2 @ Maple Leafs Apr 11, 2026 44% +56
14 Kings W 3–2 SO vs Predators Apr 6, 2026 46% +54
15 Canadiens W 4–1 @ Islanders Apr 12, 2026 47% +53
16 Mammoth W 4–1 vs Predators Apr 9, 2026 47% +53
17 Canadiens W 4–3 SO vs Panthers Apr 7, 2026 48% +52
18 Golden Knights W 3–2 OT @ Avalanche Apr 11, 2026 48% +52
19 Stars W 2–0 vs Rangers Apr 11, 2026 50% +50
20 Capitals W 3–0 vs Penguins Apr 12, 2026 50% +50
21 Kraken W 4–3 SO vs Golden Knights Apr 9, 2026 50% +50
22 Wild W 5–2 vs Kraken Apr 7, 2026 50% +50
23 Canucks W 4–3 SO @ Sharks Apr 11, 2026 51% +49
24 Kings W 1–0 vs Oilers Apr 11, 2026 51% +49
25 Hurricanes W 4–1 @ Mammoth Apr 11, 2026 51% +49
26 Capitals W 4–0 @ Maple Leafs Apr 8, 2026 52% +48
27 Jets W 3–2 @ Blues Apr 9, 2026 53% +47
28 Lightning W 2–1 @ Bruins Apr 11, 2026 54% +46
29 Blues W 5–3 @ Blackhawks Apr 11, 2026 54% +46
30 Devils W 5–3 @ Red Wings Apr 11, 2026 55% +45
31 Kings W 4–1 vs Canucks Apr 9, 2026 56% +44
32 Blue Jackets W 4–3 SO @ Red Wings Apr 7, 2026 57% +43
33 Oilers W 5–2 @ Sharks Apr 8, 2026 57% +43
34 Hurricanes W 7–2 @ Blackhawks Apr 9, 2026 57% +43
35 Avalanche W 3–1 @ Blues Apr 7, 2026 60% +40
36 Sabres W 4–2 vs Lightning Apr 6, 2026 61% +39
37 Stars W 4–3 OT vs Flames Apr 7, 2026 62% +38
38 Jets W 6–2 vs Kraken Apr 6, 2026 64% +36
39 Penguins W 5–2 @ Devils Apr 9, 2026 65% +35
40 Senators W 5–1 vs Panthers Apr 9, 2026 66% +34
41 Mammoth W 6–5 OT vs Oilers Apr 7, 2026 66% +34
42 Sabres W 5–3 @ Rangers Apr 8, 2026 67% +33
43 Capitals W 6–3 @ Penguins Apr 11, 2026 67% +33
44 Flames W 4–1 vs Mammoth Apr 12, 2026 68% +32
45 Kraken W 4–1 vs Flames Apr 11, 2026 70% +30
46 Senators W 6–2 vs Lightning Apr 7, 2026 70% +30
47 Blue Jackets W 5–2 @ Canadiens Apr 11, 2026 71% +29
48 Canadiens W 2–1 vs Lightning Apr 9, 2026 71% +29
49 Ducks W 6–1 vs Sharks Apr 9, 2026 71% +29
50 Hurricanes W 6–5 OT vs Bruins Apr 7, 2026 75% +25
51 Avalanche W 3–1 vs Flames Apr 9, 2026 78% +22
52 Golden Knights W 2–1 @ Canucks Apr 7, 2026 80% +20
53 Islanders W 5–3 vs Maple Leafs Apr 9, 2026 90% +10
54 Maple Leafs L 3–5 @ Islanders Apr 9, 2026 10% −10
55 Canucks L 1–2 vs Golden Knights Apr 7, 2026 20% −20
56 Flames L 1–3 @ Avalanche Apr 9, 2026 22% −22
57 Bruins L 5–6 OT @ Hurricanes Apr 7, 2026 25% −25
58 Sharks L 1–6 @ Ducks Apr 9, 2026 29% −29
59 Lightning L 1–2 @ Canadiens Apr 9, 2026 29% −29
60 Canadiens L 2–5 vs Blue Jackets Apr 11, 2026 29% −29
61 Lightning L 2–6 @ Senators Apr 7, 2026 30% −30
62 Flames L 1–4 @ Kraken Apr 11, 2026 30% −30
63 Mammoth L 1–4 @ Flames Apr 12, 2026 32% −32
64 Penguins L 3–6 vs Capitals Apr 11, 2026 33% −33
65 Rangers L 3–5 vs Sabres Apr 8, 2026 33% −33
66 Oilers L 5–6 OT @ Mammoth Apr 7, 2026 34% −34
67 Panthers L 1–5 @ Senators Apr 9, 2026 34% −34
68 Devils L 2–5 vs Penguins Apr 9, 2026 35% −35
69 Kraken L 2–6 @ Jets Apr 6, 2026 36% −36
70 Flames L 3–4 OT @ Stars Apr 7, 2026 38% −38
71 Lightning L 2–4 @ Sabres Apr 6, 2026 39% −39
72 Blues L 1–3 vs Avalanche Apr 7, 2026 40% −40
73 Sharks L 2–5 vs Oilers Apr 8, 2026 43% −43
74 Blackhawks L 2–7 vs Hurricanes Apr 9, 2026 43% −43
75 Red Wings L 3–4 SO vs Blue Jackets Apr 7, 2026 43% −43
76 Canucks L 1–4 @ Kings Apr 9, 2026 44% −44
77 Red Wings L 3–5 vs Devils Apr 11, 2026 45% −45
78 Blackhawks L 3–5 vs Blues Apr 11, 2026 46% −46
79 Bruins L 1–2 vs Lightning Apr 11, 2026 46% −46
80 Blues L 2–3 vs Jets Apr 9, 2026 47% −47
81 Maple Leafs L 0–4 vs Capitals Apr 8, 2026 48% −48
82 Mammoth L 1–4 vs Hurricanes Apr 11, 2026 49% −49
83 Oilers L 0–1 @ Kings Apr 11, 2026 49% −49
84 Sharks L 3–4 SO vs Canucks Apr 11, 2026 49% −49
85 Kraken L 2–5 @ Wild Apr 7, 2026 50% −50
86 Golden Knights L 3–4 SO @ Kraken Apr 9, 2026 50% −50
87 Rangers L 0–2 @ Stars Apr 11, 2026 50% −50
88 Penguins L 0–3 @ Capitals Apr 12, 2026 50% −50
89 Panthers L 3–4 SO @ Canadiens Apr 7, 2026 52% −52
90 Avalanche L 2–3 OT vs Golden Knights Apr 11, 2026 52% −52
91 Predators L 1–4 @ Mammoth Apr 9, 2026 53% −53
92 Islanders L 1–4 vs Canadiens Apr 12, 2026 53% −53
93 Predators L 2–3 SO @ Kings Apr 6, 2026 54% −54
94 Maple Leafs L 2–6 vs Panthers Apr 11, 2026 56% −56
95 Blackhawks L 2–3 @ Sharks Apr 6, 2026 56% −56
96 Wild L 1–2 @ Predators Apr 11, 2026 57% −57
97 Blue Jackets L 0–5 @ Sabres Apr 9, 2026 57% −57
98 Flyers L 3–6 @ Red Wings Apr 9, 2026 58% −58
99 Senators L 3–4 OT @ Devils Apr 12, 2026 58% −58
100 Jets L 1–7 vs Flyers Apr 11, 2026 59% −59
101 Wild L 4–5 @ Stars Apr 9, 2026 60% −60
102 Devils L 1–5 vs Flyers Apr 7, 2026 63% −63
103 Ducks L 0–5 vs Predators Apr 7, 2026 67% −67
104 Blue Jackets L 2–3 vs Bruins Apr 12, 2026 67% −67
105 Islanders L 0–3 vs Senators Apr 11, 2026 68% −68
106 Ducks L 3–4 OT vs Canucks Apr 12, 2026 72% −72