luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 7, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Mammoth, Apr 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Oilers 6–5, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Oilers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 38 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 0:36 left): Nick Schmaltz scored on a snap shot from 31 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Mammoth. The biggest single swing (OT): the Mammoth won in overtime.

Final (OT)

Edmonton Oilers 5
Utah Mammoth 6

April 7, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +34 Mammoth lucky · −34 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 3, Mammoth win 7.

  1. 1 EDM 5 UTA 2
  2. 2 EDM 4 UTA 3
  3. 3 EDM 3 UTA 2
  4. 4 EDM 2 UTA 3
  5. 5 EDM 1 UTA 2
  6. 6 EDM 1 UTA 3
  7. 7 EDM 3 UTA 6
  8. 8 EDM 2 UTA 5
  9. 9 EDM 1 UTA 5
  10. 10 EDM 1 UTA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Oilers win 34% of them, Mammoth 66%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+9.6%
Oilers by 26.4%
Oilers by 117.5%
Mammoth by 119.7%
Mammoth by 210.8%
Mammoth by 3+35.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers3752.58+2.42
Mammoth6354.23+0.77

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:24 High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 3:48 Interference on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play +3% UTA
P2 12:37 Hooking on the Oilers (Ty Emberson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% UTA
P2 9:14 High sticking on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P2 1:49 Hooking on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
OT 4:35 Tripping on the Oilers (Matt Savoie): 2 minutes on the power play +12% UTA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:07 JJ Peterka scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance +14% UTA –
2 P1 5:17 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance +14% EDM –
3 P2 4:41 Logan Cooley scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance +22% UTA –
4 P2 3:54 Vasily Podkolzin scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 14% chance +21% EDM –
5 P2 0:36 The game turned hereNick Schmaltz scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 8% chance +23% UTA –
6 P3 17:51 Colton Dach scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 13% chance +23% EDM –
7 P3 7:04 Alexander Kerfoot scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 8% chance +33% UTA –
8 OT The Mammoth won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 26% · Mammoth 74%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 34% · Mammoth 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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