luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Ducks, Apr 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Ducks 5–0, but the replays lean toward the Ducks: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (P2, 12:53 left): Erik Haula scored on a snap shot from 33 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final

Nashville Predators 5
Anaheim Ducks 0

April 7, 2026 · Honda Center

Luck index +67 Predators very lucky · −67 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 3, Ducks win 7.

  1. 1 NSH 6 ANA 3
  2. 2 NSH 3 ANA 1
  3. 3 NSH 5 ANA 4
  4. 4 NSH 3 ANA 4
  5. 5 NSH 6 ANA 7
  6. 6 NSH 4 ANA 6
  7. 7 NSH 4 ANA 7
  8. 8 NSH 1 ANA 5
  9. 9 NSH 0 ANA 4
  10. 10 NSH 2 ANA 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Predators win 33% of them, Ducks 67%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+10.8%
Predators by 26.6%
Predators by 115.7%
Ducks by 116.1%
Ducks by 210.4%
Ducks by 3+40.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 5, without the luck Ducks by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators3753.03+1.97
Ducks6405.14−5.14

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:12 Holding on the Predators (Ryan Ufko): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 4:19 High sticking on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 9:59 Tripping on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 4:16 Tripping on the Predators (Reid Schaefer): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 2:38 Tripping on the Predators (Tyson Jost): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P2 0:16 Elbowing on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 4 minutes on the power play +2% NSH
P3 7:01 Cross checking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NSH
P3 4:36 Tripping on the Predators (Justus Annunen): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA
P3 4:01 Tripping on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:46 Troy Terry’s slap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +5% NSH –
2 P1 4:19 High sticking on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% ANA –
3 P2 18:47 Troy Terry’s snap shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 26% chanceTroy Terry’s snap shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +10% NSH –
4 P2 15:24 Steven Stamkos missed the net with a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 26% chance +5% ANA –
5 P2 12:53 Erik Haula scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 9% chance +19% NSH –
6 P2 9:59 Tripping on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NSH –
7 P2 8:34 Filip Forsberg scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% NSH –
8 P2 1:00 Brady Skjei scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 17% chance +6% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 48% · Ducks 52%

Final margin
Predators by 5
Luck in goals
5.3 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Predators 33% · Ducks 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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