luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 11, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Sharks, Apr 11, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Sharks 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canucks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Canucks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final (SO)

Vancouver Canucks 4
San Jose Sharks 3

April 11, 2026 · SAP Center at San Jose

Luck index +49 Canucks lucky · −49 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 5, Sharks win 5.

  1. 1 VAN 4 SJS 0
  2. 2 VAN 4 SJS 1
  3. 3 VAN 3 SJS 1
  4. 4 VAN 2 SJS 1
  5. 5 VAN 2 SJS 1
  6. 6 VAN 2 SJS 3
  7. 7 VAN 3 SJS 4
  8. 8 VAN 1 SJS 3
  9. 9 VAN 1 SJS 4
  10. 10 VAN 1 SJS 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canucks win 51% of them, Sharks 49%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+19.3%
Canucks by 210.6%
Canucks by 120.9%
Sharks by 122.7%
Sharks by 29.8%
Sharks by 3+16.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks4932.60+0.40
Sharks4032.57+0.43

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 16:32 Hooking on the Canucks (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 4:16 Tripping on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 2:23 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN
P3 4:59 Hooking on the Sharks (Vincent Desharnais): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN
OT 2:17 Tripping on the Canucks (Jake DeBrusk): 2 minutes on the power play +12% SJS
OT 0:28 Interference on the Sharks (William Eklund): 2 minutes on the power play +12% VAN

When it happened

Sharks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Sharks were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 3:41 Igor Chernyshov scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 19% chance +14% SJS –
2 P2 14:04 Marco Rossi scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 7% chance +19% VAN –
3 P2 10:58 Tyler Toffoli scored on a wrist shot from 53 feetShooting · 1% chance +20% SJS –
4 P2 2:23 Jake DeBrusk scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 20% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +25% VAN –
5 P3 7:16 Igor Chernyshov scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 11% chance +31% SJS –
6 P3 3:00 Teddy Blueger scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 14% chance +35% VAN –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Canucks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% VAN –
8 OT 2:17 Tripping on the Canucks (Jake DeBrusk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% SJS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 52% · Sharks 48%

Final margin
Canucks by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 51% · Sharks 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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