2025-26 regular season · April 9, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canucks at Kings, Apr 9, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Canucks 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kings win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Kings.
The biggest swing (P1, 4:12 left): Joel Armia scored on a wrist shot from 38 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Kings.
Final
 Vancouver Canucks | 1 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Kings lucky · −44 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canucks win 4, Kings win 6.
- 1 VAN 3 LAK 0
- 2 VAN 2 LAK 0
- 3 VAN 1 LAK 0
- 4 VAN 1 LAK 0
- 5 VAN 3 LAK 4
- 6 VAN 2 LAK 3
- 7 VAN 2 LAK 4
- 8 VAN 2 LAK 4
- 9 VAN 0 LAK 3
- 10 VAN 1 LAK 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Canucks win 44% of them, Kings 56%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canucks by 3+ | 12.2% |
| Canucks by 2 | 9.3% |
| Canucks by 1 | 22.5% |
| Kings by 1 | 24.4% |
| Kings by 2 | 11.6% |
| Kings by 3+ | 19.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canucks | 42 | 1 | 2.23 | −1.23 |
 Kings | 37 | 4 | 2.20 | +1.80 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
No power-play penalties or overturned goals in this game’s play-by-play.
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:31 | Adrian Kempe scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 15% chance | +13% LAK | – |
| 2 | P1 5:43 | Marcus Pettersson scored on a slap shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance | +16% VAN | – |
| 3 | P1 4:12 | Joel Armia scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% LAK | – |
| 4 | P2 19:13 | Adrian Kempe missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 20% chance | +3% VAN | – |
| 5 | P2 9:42 | Drew O'Connor’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +3% LAK | – |
| 6 | P2 6:45 | Linus Karlsson missed the net with a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance | +4% LAK | – |
| 7 | P2 0:29 | Adrian Kempe scored on a tip from 20 feetShooting · 9% chance | +14% LAK | – |
| 8 | P3 10:43 | Trevor Moore scored on a deflected shot from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance | +3% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canucks 32% · Kings 68%
- Final margin
- Kings by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for the Kings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Canucks 44% · Kings 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 27, 2025-26
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- Predators at Kings Apr 6, 2026 · LAK 3–2 SO · replay 46% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Avalanche Apr 11, 2026 · VGK 3–2 OT · replay 48% for the winner
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- Oilers at Sharks Apr 8, 2026 · EDM 5–2 · replay 57% for the winner
- Flames at Stars Apr 7, 2026 · DAL 4–3 OT · replay 62% for the winner
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