luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 7, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Stars, Apr 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Flames 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Flames had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 8 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (OT): the Stars won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Stars.

Final (OT)

Calgary Flames 3
Dallas Stars 4

April 7, 2026 · American Airlines Center

Luck index +38 Stars lucky · −38 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 4, Stars win 6.

  1. 1 CGY 3 DAL 0
  2. 2 CGY 3 DAL 1
  3. 3 CGY 4 DAL 3
  4. 4 CGY 3 DAL 2
  5. 5 CGY 3 DAL 4
  6. 6 CGY 4 DAL 5
  7. 7 CGY 1 DAL 3
  8. 8 CGY 1 DAL 4
  9. 9 CGY 2 DAL 5
  10. 10 CGY 0 DAL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flames win 38% of them, Stars 62%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+9.8%
Flames by 26.9%
Flames by 120.9%
Stars by 122.6%
Stars by 212.1%
Stars by 3+27.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Stars: the final margin was Stars by 1, without the luck Stars by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames3132.10+0.90
Stars2632.89+0.11

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:20 Tripping on the Flames (Matt Coronato): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 9:48 High sticking on the Flames (Martin Pospisil): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 2:12 Hooking on the Stars (Ilya Lyubushkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 0:40 Tripping on the Stars (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P3 12:06 Holding on the Flames (Connor Zary): 2 minutes on the power play +7% DAL
P3 7:20 Too many men on the ice on the Stars (DAL): 2 minutes on the power play +8% CGY
OT 4:12 High sticking double minor on the Flames (Ryan Strome): 4 minutes on the power play +23% DAL

When it happened

Stars’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Stars were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 15:30 Justin Hryckowian scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +17% DAL –
2 P2 7:22 Joel Farabee scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance +20% CGY –
3 P2 1:08 Yegor Sharangovich scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 8% chance +23% CGY –
4 P3 19:34 Zayne Parekh scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% CGY –
5 P3 18:44 Wyatt Johnston scored on a snap shot from 4 feetShooting · 38% chance +10% DAL –
6 P3 15:09 Jason Robertson scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 26% chance +21% DAL –
7 OT The Stars won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% DAL –
8 OT 4:12 High sticking double minor on the Flames (Ryan Strome): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +23% DAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 35% · Stars 65%

Final margin
Stars by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Stars
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Flames 38% · Stars 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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