luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 9, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Lightning at Canadiens, Apr 9, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Lightning 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 1:51 left): Darren Raddysh scored on a snap shot from 39 feet, worth 40 points of win probability to the Lightning.

Final

Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Montreal Canadiens 2

April 9, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +29 Canadiens lucky · −29 Lightning

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lightning win 3, Canadiens win 7.

  1. 1 TBL 3 MTL 0
  2. 2 TBL 4 MTL 3
  3. 3 TBL 5 MTL 4
  4. 4 TBL 4 MTL 5
  5. 5 TBL 0 MTL 1
  6. 6 TBL 1 MTL 3
  7. 7 TBL 3 MTL 6
  8. 8 TBL 2 MTL 5
  9. 9 TBL 2 MTL 6
  10. 10 TBL 0 MTL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lightning win 29% of them, Canadiens 71%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lightning by 3+6.3%
Lightning by 25.7%
Lightning by 117.0%
Canadiens by 118.8%
Canadiens by 210.9%
Canadiens by 3+41.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Lightning: the final margin was Canadiens by 1, without the luck Canadiens by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Lightning2712.05−1.05
Canadiens4123.39−1.39

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:12 High sticking double minor on the Lightning (Yanni Gourde): 4 minutes on the power play +7% MTL
P1 6:49 Roughing on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P1 3:57 High sticking on the Canadiens (Ivan Demidov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 16:27 Roughing on the Canadiens (Joe Veleno): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL
P2 12:56 Roughing on the Lightning (Anthony Cirelli): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 7:40 Slashing on the Lightning (Oliver Bjorkstrand): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 5:00 Instigator on the Lightning (Declan Carlile): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 2:26 Interference goalkeeper on the Lightning (Brayden Point): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P3 8:58 Roughing on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MTL
P3 5:38 Kneeing on the Canadiens (Ivan Demidov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TBL

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Lightning were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:12 High sticking double minor on the Lightning (Yanni Gourde): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% MTL –
2 P2 13:30 Cole Caufield scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% MTL –
3 P3 17:11 Corey Perry missed the net with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 17% chance +5% MTL –
4 P3 8:58 Roughing on the Lightning (J.J. Moser): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% MTL –
5 P3 5:38 Kneeing on the Canadiens (Ivan Demidov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TBL –
6 P3 5:22 Jake Guentzel’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +10% MTL –
7 P3 1:51 Darren Raddysh scored on a snap shot from 39 feetShooting · 6% chance +40% TBL –
8 P3 1:04 Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 21% chance +35% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lightning 13% · Canadiens 87%

Final margin
Canadiens by 1
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Lightning
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Lightning 29% · Canadiens 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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