luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 11, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Kraken, Apr 11, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Flames 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 6:44 left): Chandler Stephenson scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Calgary Flames 1
Seattle Kraken 4

April 11, 2026 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +30 Kraken lucky · −30 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 3, Kraken win 7.

  1. 1 CGY 3 SEA 0
  2. 2 CGY 3 SEA 2
  3. 3 CGY 3 SEA 2
  4. 4 CGY 2 SEA 3
  5. 5 CGY 4 SEA 5
  6. 6 CGY 2 SEA 4
  7. 7 CGY 2 SEA 4
  8. 8 CGY 3 SEA 6
  9. 9 CGY 0 SEA 3
  10. 10 CGY 1 SEA 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flames win 30% of them, Kraken 70%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+5.6%
Flames by 25.5%
Flames by 119.2%
Kraken by 122.9%
Kraken by 214.1%
Kraken by 3+32.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 3, without the luck Kraken by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames4111.52−0.52
Kraken3632.65+0.35

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 14:44 Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P2 10:34 Holding on the Flames (Abram Wiebe): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA
P3 17:13 Too many men on the ice on the Flames (CGY): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P3 13:13 Hooking on the Flames (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 3:10 Frederick Gaudreau’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +5% CGY –
2 P2 18:49 Hunter Brzustewicz scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% CGY –
3 P2 17:55 Frederick Gaudreau scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% SEA –
4 P2 14:44 Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
5 P2 10:34 Holding on the Flames (Abram Wiebe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SEA –
6 P2 9:14 Matty Beniers missed the net with a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 22% chance +5% CGY –
7 P2 6:44 Chandler Stephenson scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance +19% SEA –
8 P2 0:05 Matty Beniers scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 2% chance +14% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 9% · Kraken 91%

Final margin
Kraken by 3
Luck in goals
1.2 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Flames 30% · Kraken 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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