2025-26 regular season · April 9, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Ducks, Apr 9, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Sharks 6–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 17:01 left): Leo Carlsson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 1 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Ducks lucky · −29 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 3, Ducks win 7.
- 1 SJS 3 ANA 0
- 2 SJS 3 ANA 2
- 3 SJS 3 ANA 2
- 4 SJS 1 ANA 2
- 5 SJS 1 ANA 2
- 6 SJS 1 ANA 2
- 7 SJS 1 ANA 3
- 8 SJS 0 ANA 3
- 9 SJS 2 ANA 6
- 10 SJS 0 ANA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Sharks win 29% of them, Ducks 71%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 4.5% |
| Sharks by 2 | 4.9% |
| Sharks by 1 | 19.4% |
| Ducks by 1 | 21.9% |
| Ducks by 2 | 13.6% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 35.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 31 | 1 | 1.39 | −0.39 |
 Ducks | 42 | 6 | 2.69 | +3.31 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P3 10:20 | Hooking on the Sharks (Collin Graf): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% ANA |
| P3 6:18 | Holding on the Sharks (Sam Dickinson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% ANA |
| P3 6:12 | High sticking on the Sharks (Vincent Desharnais): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% ANA |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:22 | Jeffrey Viel missed the net with a tip from 20 feetShooting · 8% chance | +1% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 17:01 | Leo Carlsson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 15% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 3 | P1 13:40 | John Carlson scored on a slap shot from 53 feetShooting · 2% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 4 | P1 8:33 | Leo Carlsson’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +1% SJS | – |
| 5 | P1 8:29 | Troy Terry’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +1% SJS | – |
| 6 | P1 4:42 | Macklin Celebrini missed the net with a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +1% ANA | – |
| 7 | P1 2:52 | Kiefer Sherwood missed the net with a deflected shot from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance | +1% ANA | – |
| 8 | P2 14:45 | Alex Killorn scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance | +7% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 4% · Ducks 96%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 5
- Luck in goals
- 2.8 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 29% · Ducks 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 27, 2025-26
- Canucks at Ducks Apr 12, 2026 · VAN 4–3 OT · replay 28% for the winner
- Predators at Ducks Apr 7, 2026 · NSH 5–0 · replay 33% for the winner
- Blackhawks at Sharks Apr 6, 2026 · SJS 3–2 · replay 44% for the winner
- Predators at Kings Apr 6, 2026 · LAK 3–2 SO · replay 46% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Avalanche Apr 11, 2026 · VGK 3–2 OT · replay 48% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Kraken Apr 9, 2026 · SEA 4–3 SO · replay 50% for the winner
- Kraken at Wild Apr 7, 2026 · MIN 5–2 · replay 50% for the winner
- Canucks at Sharks Apr 11, 2026 · VAN 4–3 SO · replay 51% for the winner
- Oilers at Kings Apr 11, 2026 · LAK 1–0 · replay 51% for the winner
- Canucks at Kings Apr 9, 2026 · LAK 4–1 · replay 56% for the winner
- Oilers at Sharks Apr 8, 2026 · EDM 5–2 · replay 57% for the winner
- Flames at Stars Apr 7, 2026 · DAL 4–3 OT · replay 62% for the winner