luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · Mar 30, 2026 – Apr 5, 2026

NHL week 26: who deserved to win

3 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Red Wings beat the Flyers 4–2 in a game they win 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 56 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 26 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Red Wings W 4–2 @ Flyers Apr 2, 2026 29% +71
2 Flames W 5–3 @ Ducks Apr 4, 2026 34% +66
3 Canadiens W 4–1 @ Lightning Mar 31, 2026 35% +65
4 Lightning W 3–1 vs Bruins Apr 4, 2026 40% +60
5 Sharks W 4–3 vs Ducks Apr 1, 2026 42% +58
6 Capitals W 6–4 vs Flyers Mar 31, 2026 42% +58
7 Kings W 2–1 OT vs Blues Apr 1, 2026 44% +56
8 Canadiens W 3–2 @ Rangers Apr 2, 2026 44% +56
9 Avalanche W 2–0 @ Stars Apr 4, 2026 44% +56
10 Devils W 7–3 vs Capitals Apr 2, 2026 45% +55
11 Capitals W 6–2 vs Sabres Apr 4, 2026 45% +55
12 Jets W 2–1 @ Blue Jackets Apr 4, 2026 47% +53
13 Canucks W 8–6 @ Avalanche Apr 1, 2026 47% +53
14 Wild W 5–4 @ Red Wings Apr 5, 2026 48% +52
15 Maple Leafs W 5–4 OT @ Ducks Mar 30, 2026 49% +51
16 Flyers W 4–1 @ Islanders Apr 3, 2026 49% +51
17 Rangers W 4–1 vs Red Wings Apr 4, 2026 50% +50
18 Golden Knights W 5–1 @ Oilers Apr 4, 2026 50% +50
19 Oilers W 3–0 vs Kraken Mar 31, 2026 50% +50
20 Stars W 3–0 vs Jets Apr 2, 2026 51% +49
21 Jets W 4–3 OT @ Blackhawks Mar 31, 2026 53% +47
22 Panthers W 2–1 vs Bruins Apr 2, 2026 53% +47
23 Predators W 6–3 @ Sharks Apr 4, 2026 53% +47
24 Canadiens W 4–3 SO @ Devils Apr 4, 2026 53% +47
25 Wild W 4–1 @ Senators Apr 4, 2026 53% +47
26 Hurricanes W 5–2 @ Blue Jackets Mar 31, 2026 53% +47
27 Senators W 4–1 vs Sabres Apr 2, 2026 54% +46
28 Blues W 6–2 @ Ducks Apr 3, 2026 54% +46
29 Sharks W 4–1 vs Maple Leafs Apr 2, 2026 55% +45
30 Predators W 5–4 SO @ Kings Apr 2, 2026 57% +43
31 Mammoth W 7–4 @ Canucks Apr 4, 2026 57% +43
32 Penguins W 5–2 vs Panthers Apr 5, 2026 58% +42
33 Hurricanes W 5–1 vs Blue Jackets Apr 2, 2026 58% +42
34 Flyers W 2–1 OT vs Bruins Apr 5, 2026 59% +41
35 Bruins W 6–3 vs Stars Mar 31, 2026 59% +41
36 Sharks W 5–4 vs Blues Mar 30, 2026 60% +40
37 Blackhawks W 4–2 @ Kraken Apr 4, 2026 60% +40
38 Mammoth W 6–2 @ Kraken Apr 2, 2026 61% +39
39 Rangers W 4–1 vs Devils Mar 31, 2026 63% +37
40 Devils W 3–0 @ Canadiens Apr 5, 2026 64% +36
41 Oilers W 3–1 vs Blackhawks Apr 2, 2026 68% +32
42 Blues W 3–2 @ Avalanche Apr 5, 2026 68% +32
43 Golden Knights W 4–2 vs Canucks Mar 30, 2026 69% +31
44 Lightning W 6–3 vs Penguins Apr 2, 2026 69% +31
45 Wild W 5–2 vs Canucks Apr 2, 2026 70% +30
46 Avalanche W 9–2 vs Flames Mar 30, 2026 71% +29
47 Golden Knights W 6–3 vs Flames Apr 2, 2026 71% +29
48 Penguins W 8–3 @ Islanders Mar 30, 2026 71% +29
49 Hurricanes W 4–3 vs Islanders Apr 4, 2026 72% +28
50 Sabres W 4–3 vs Islanders Mar 31, 2026 72% +28
51 Penguins W 5–1 vs Red Wings Mar 31, 2026 73% +27
52 Senators W 6–3 vs Hurricanes Apr 5, 2026 73% +27
53 Penguins W 9–4 vs Panthers Apr 4, 2026 75% +25
54 Kings W 7–6 OT vs Maple Leafs Apr 4, 2026 76% +24
55 Panthers W 6–3 vs Senators Mar 31, 2026 77% +23
56 Rangers W 8–1 vs Capitals Apr 5, 2026 79% +21
57 Capitals L 1–8 @ Rangers Apr 5, 2026 21% −21
58 Senators L 3–6 @ Panthers Mar 31, 2026 23% −23
59 Maple Leafs L 6–7 OT @ Kings Apr 4, 2026 24% −24
60 Panthers L 4–9 @ Penguins Apr 4, 2026 25% −25
61 Hurricanes L 3–6 @ Senators Apr 5, 2026 27% −27
62 Red Wings L 1–5 @ Penguins Mar 31, 2026 27% −27
63 Islanders L 3–4 @ Sabres Mar 31, 2026 28% −28
64 Islanders L 3–4 @ Hurricanes Apr 4, 2026 28% −28
65 Islanders L 3–8 vs Penguins Mar 30, 2026 29% −29
66 Flames L 2–9 @ Avalanche Mar 30, 2026 29% −29
67 Flames L 3–6 @ Golden Knights Apr 2, 2026 29% −29
68 Canucks L 2–5 @ Wild Apr 2, 2026 30% −30
69 Penguins L 3–6 @ Lightning Apr 2, 2026 31% −31
70 Canucks L 2–4 @ Golden Knights Mar 30, 2026 31% −31
71 Avalanche L 2–3 vs Blues Apr 5, 2026 32% −32
72 Blackhawks L 1–3 @ Oilers Apr 2, 2026 32% −32
73 Canadiens L 0–3 vs Devils Apr 5, 2026 36% −36
74 Devils L 1–4 @ Rangers Mar 31, 2026 37% −37
75 Kraken L 2–6 vs Mammoth Apr 2, 2026 39% −39
76 Blues L 4–5 @ Sharks Mar 30, 2026 40% −40
77 Kraken L 2–4 vs Blackhawks Apr 4, 2026 40% −40
78 Stars L 3–6 @ Bruins Mar 31, 2026 41% −41
79 Bruins L 1–2 OT @ Flyers Apr 5, 2026 41% −41
80 Blue Jackets L 1–5 @ Hurricanes Apr 2, 2026 42% −42
81 Panthers L 2–5 @ Penguins Apr 5, 2026 42% −42
82 Canucks L 4–7 vs Mammoth Apr 4, 2026 43% −43
83 Kings L 4–5 SO vs Predators Apr 2, 2026 43% −43
84 Maple Leafs L 1–4 @ Sharks Apr 2, 2026 45% −45
85 Ducks L 2–6 vs Blues Apr 3, 2026 46% −46
86 Sabres L 1–4 @ Senators Apr 2, 2026 46% −46
87 Blue Jackets L 2–5 vs Hurricanes Mar 31, 2026 47% −47
88 Senators L 1–4 vs Wild Apr 4, 2026 47% −47
89 Devils L 3–4 SO vs Canadiens Apr 4, 2026 47% −47
90 Sharks L 3–6 vs Predators Apr 4, 2026 47% −47
91 Bruins L 1–2 @ Panthers Apr 2, 2026 47% −47
92 Blackhawks L 3–4 OT vs Jets Mar 31, 2026 47% −47
93 Jets L 0–3 @ Stars Apr 2, 2026 49% −49
94 Kraken L 0–3 @ Oilers Mar 31, 2026 50% −50
95 Oilers L 1–5 vs Golden Knights Apr 4, 2026 50% −50
96 Red Wings L 1–4 @ Rangers Apr 4, 2026 50% −50
97 Islanders L 1–4 vs Flyers Apr 3, 2026 51% −51
98 Ducks L 4–5 OT vs Maple Leafs Mar 30, 2026 51% −51
99 Red Wings L 4–5 vs Wild Apr 5, 2026 52% −52
100 Avalanche L 6–8 vs Canucks Apr 1, 2026 53% −53
101 Blue Jackets L 1–2 vs Jets Apr 4, 2026 53% −53
102 Sabres L 2–6 @ Capitals Apr 4, 2026 55% −55
103 Capitals L 3–7 @ Devils Apr 2, 2026 55% −55
104 Stars L 0–2 vs Avalanche Apr 4, 2026 56% −56
105 Rangers L 2–3 vs Canadiens Apr 2, 2026 56% −56
106 Blues L 1–2 OT @ Kings Apr 1, 2026 56% −56
107 Flyers L 4–6 @ Capitals Mar 31, 2026 58% −58
108 Ducks L 3–4 @ Sharks Apr 1, 2026 58% −58
109 Bruins L 1–3 @ Lightning Apr 4, 2026 60% −60
110 Lightning L 1–4 vs Canadiens Mar 31, 2026 65% −65
111 Ducks L 3–5 vs Flames Apr 4, 2026 66% −66
112 Flyers L 2–4 vs Red Wings Apr 2, 2026 71% −71