2025-26 regular season · April 5, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Penguins, Apr 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Penguins beat the Panthers 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Penguins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Penguins.
The biggest swing (P1, 3:45 left): Cole Schwindt scored on a wrist shot from 36 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 2 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Penguins lucky · −42 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Penguins win 6.
- 1 FLA 6 PIT 2
- 2 FLA 4 PIT 2
- 3 FLA 5 PIT 4
- 4 FLA 4 PIT 3
- 5 FLA 3 PIT 4
- 6 FLA 2 PIT 3
- 7 FLA 1 PIT 3
- 8 FLA 2 PIT 5
- 9 FLA 0 PIT 3
- 10 FLA 3 PIT 8
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Panthers win 42% of them, Penguins 58%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 16.3% |
| Panthers by 2 | 7.5% |
| Panthers by 1 | 18.0% |
| Penguins by 1 | 18.7% |
| Penguins by 2 | 10.1% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 29.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 55 | 2 | 3.34 | −1.34 |
 Penguins | 35 | 5 | 3.50 | +1.50 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 16:08 | Holding on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P1 11:16 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P1 6:31 | Tripping on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 1:40 | Cross checking on the Panthers (Matthew Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 17:22 | High sticking double minor on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 4 minutes on the power play | +5% PIT |
| P2 11:49 | Holding on the Penguins (Samuel Girard): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P3 19:41 | Interference on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% FLA |
| P3 13:36 | High sticking on the Penguins (Connor Clifton): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
| P3 12:12 | Roughing on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PIT |
| P3 10:43 | Holding on the Panthers (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PIT |
| P3 7:15 | Tripping on the Penguins (Connor Clifton): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
| P3 1:55 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:03 | Rickard Rakell’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance | +4% FLA | – |
| 2 | P1 11:16 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PIT | – |
| 3 | P1 9:00 | Elmer Soderblom scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 3% chance | +16% PIT | – |
| 4 | P1 3:45 | Cole Schwindt scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% FLA | – |
| 5 | P1 3:10 | Sidney Crosby scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance | +16% PIT | – |
| 6 | P1 0:48 | Rickard Rakell scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 14% chance | +12% PIT | – |
| 7 | P2 17:22 | High sticking double minor on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% PIT | – |
| 8 | P2 1:52 | Rickard Rakell scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 13% chance | +6% PIT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 32% · Penguins 68%
- Final margin
- Penguins by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 42% · Penguins 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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