luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 5, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Wild at Red Wings, Apr 5, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Wild beat the Red Wings 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Wild win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 52 points of win probability to the Wild.

The biggest swing (P3, 1:51 left): Kirill Kaprizov scored on a slap shot from 36 feet, worth 40 points of win probability to the Wild.

Final

Minnesota Wild 5
Detroit Red Wings 4

April 5, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +52 Wild lucky · −52 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wild win 5, Red Wings win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 4 DET 0
  2. 2 MIN 3 DET 0
  3. 3 MIN 3 DET 1
  4. 4 MIN 3 DET 2
  5. 5 MIN 2 DET 1
  6. 6 MIN 3 DET 4
  7. 7 MIN 3 DET 4
  8. 8 MIN 2 DET 4
  9. 9 MIN 1 DET 4
  10. 10 MIN 0 DET 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wild win 48% of them, Red Wings 52%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wild by 3+16.1%
Wild by 210.3%
Wild by 122.0%
Red Wings by 123.6%
Red Wings by 211.1%
Red Wings by 3+16.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Wild: the final margin was Wild by 1, without the luck Wild by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Wild3752.29+2.71
Red Wings4342.50+1.50

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 17:43 Roughing on the Wild (Danila Yurov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 15:03 Slashing on the Red Wings (Axel Sandin-Pellikka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P3 3:37 Tripping on the Red Wings (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +9% MIN

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Wild were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:20 Albert Johansson scored on a snap shot from 39 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% DET –
2 P2 19:42 Matt Boldy scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 5% chance +17% MIN –
3 P2 18:35 Kirill Kaprizov scored on a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +17% MIN –
4 P2 12:57 Vladimir Tarasenko scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 8% chance +15% MIN –
5 P3 8:46 J.T. Compher scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance +11% DET –
6 P3 5:24 Patrick Kane scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance +35% DET –
7 P3 3:37 Tripping on the Red Wings (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% MIN –
8 P3 1:51 Kirill Kaprizov scored on a slap shot from 36 feetShooting · 7% chance +40% MIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wild 62% · Red Wings 38%

Final margin
Wild by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Wild
Luck-adjusted margin
Wild by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Wild 48% · Red Wings 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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