luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · March 30, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Ducks, Mar 30, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Ducks 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Maple Leafs won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Anaheim Ducks 4

March 30, 2026 · Honda Center

Luck index +51 Maple Leafs lucky · −51 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Ducks win 5.

  1. 1 TOR 5 ANA 1
  2. 2 TOR 5 ANA 2
  3. 3 TOR 3 ANA 1
  4. 4 TOR 5 ANA 4
  5. 5 TOR 3 ANA 2
  6. 6 TOR 3 ANA 4
  7. 7 TOR 2 ANA 3
  8. 8 TOR 0 ANA 2
  9. 9 TOR 3 ANA 6
  10. 10 TOR 3 ANA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 49% of them, Ducks 51%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+21.0%
Maple Leafs by 29.4%
Maple Leafs by 118.1%
Ducks by 119.7%
Ducks by 29.8%
Ducks by 3+21.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 1, without the luck Maple Leafs by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4343.41+0.59
Ducks5243.25+0.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:44 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 4 minutes on the power play +7% ANA
P1 11:04 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +3% ANA
P1 6:29 Cross checking on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P2 17:11 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Michael Pezzetta): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 9:30 Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 8:53 Tripping on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 5:47 Hooking on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P3 13:40 High sticking on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TOR
P3 5:14 Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play +9% ANA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:17 Leo Carlsson scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% ANA –
2 P1 10:14 Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 4% chance +13% ANA –
3 P2 8:27 John Carlson scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% ANA –
4 P3 13:05 Matthew Knies scored on a snap shot from 43 feetShooting · 6% chance +13% TOR –
5 P3 9:46 William Nylander scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 15% chance +27% TOR –
6 P3 3:00 Morgan Rielly scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 11% chance +37% TOR –
7 P3 1:39 Leo Carlsson scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 7% chance +41% ANA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Maple Leafs won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 52% · Ducks 48%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 1
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 49% · Ducks 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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